Ratings, the 1000 Guineas and Seta
By colin on Sunday, May 2nd, 2010One of the strengths of the Betwise approach is using performance driven ratings models for a sustained betting edge over the long haul. But on an individual race basis, it is just as useful to know the limitations of conventional models.
The 1000 Guineas today is a classic case (pun realised) in point.
Many of the leading contenders come to the Fillies’ Classic today unraced since their 2 year old careers. Yet recent form is generally important in races where we look to rely on past performance. Of those that are unraced this season, Seta, Pollenator and Hibaayeb are three particularly interesting contenders – particularly interesting because their level of 2 year old form was already high and each of their trainers knows exactly what it takes to get a horse ready to win a classic first time up.
The contenders who have raced this season are all bound to improve at a rapid rate from their debut runs (as befits a 3 year old thoroughbred), and each one of their trainers will have had today’s race in mind to bring them to peak fitness, rather than their trial races on which we tend to rely for evaluating previous performance. Add these factors together, and you have a big puzzle about improvement which is hard to solve.
To make matters worse, the scant form there is to go on comes at varying trips, often short of a mile, on varying ground conditions. By all accounts, the current ground conditions at Newmarket are on the soft side of good, though it will be interesting to listen to the shrewder jockeys after the first race and consult the times – ground conditions may have a big influence.
Given that this is such a big puzzle, it’s perhaps a race to avoid from a betting point of view – we want to have a very good idea of our exact edge when betting, not a very good idea that we are facing a big puzzle. However, it’s impossible to resist trying to solve a big puzzle, even if it is possible to resist betting on the outcome of it.
So, having been a little unfair in suggesting that it was time to throw the form book out of the window, here’s a well considered guess using the data to hand. It’s conceivable to see many contenders winning having seen so little to date, but on ratings acheived over known past (and recent) form, the French filly Special Duty and the Mick Channon trained Music Hill come out very well. Seta does not come out well.
From a betting point of view, an automated model would probably look at the value of these contenders and come out with a bet on Music Hill. But at the risk of looking dumber than the automated model, I’d be inclined to think that this is because Music Hill is one of the better horses that are more exposed, and there are many with greater potential for improvement. Significantly, Keiren Fallon jumps off Music Hill to ride Seta, who apparently worked well with a couple of older horses recently – which would have given him and his trainer a good idea of what level of form might be expected. Add to that Seta’s action – high knee, grabbing the ground – and I’m inclined to think she wouldn’t mind any softening of the going. Looking at action alone, this may not apply to other leading contenders such as Special Duty,Rumoush, and Music Hill herself. Further, there is a strong doubt on trip using all known form for the French filly.
Seta could be anything (including not up to the mark), but on the strength of the fact that her jockey jumps off a leading form contender to ride her instead, and that there are reasonable doubts around the French filly, she could be the winning pick. Still way too short in price for a bet on an event surrounded by uncertainty, however.
If pressed for a bet, looking at the videos of previous races combined with ratings, it seems that more of a stamina test would be well suited to Blue Maiden, who was beaten less than a length by Music Hill in one of the premier trials for this event, and could be settled well in rear/ mid-division by Jamie Spencer (since that’s how Jamie tends to ride) to come through with an interesting late run going into the dip. As such, Blue Maiden would be my idea of a good bet to win and place at around 20/1. She promises to stay on when the sprinters fall away. But a concern would be that she lacks the class to win the 1000 Guineas, so this would be a speculative bet at best. Another interesting each way bet at the prices is Devoted To You – purely because if Aidan O’Brien thinks it has a reasonable chance, it probably has a reasonable chance.
Tags: 1000 Guineas, Blue Maiden, Keiren Fallon, Music Hill, Newmarket, Seta, Special Duty