We’ve been experimenting with sire statistics compiled from Smartform, looking at past strike rate records of sires for their progeny over distance, age and going.  Salisbury is one of the truer, tougher course where natural ability over the trip and going is paramount, so is as good a place as any to use these as an aid to the selection process.   So, below are the top few contenders rated by sire (only shown to depth past 1 where scoring highly) for each race on today’s Salisbury card:

14:00: Whinging Willie, Graphic

14:35:  Maccabees, Itsonlymakebelieve, Cavaleiro

15:05:  Sasheen

15:35:  Alfresco

16:10:  Sense Of Pride, Souter Point

16:45: Grand Gold, Sir Glanton

17:15:  Gatewood, Proof, Anatolian

17:45:  Little Book, Oliver’s Gold, Invent

A friend is off to the races in deepest Surrey tonight and asked for a few pointers for the meeting, so we’ve dusted off a few tools crafted from Smartform to produce some analysis that may help below:

17:50:   Arabian Falcon is worth a small win bet –  strong from a race pace angle (important over 5 furlongs);  also strong on 2 year old breeding.

18:20:  Speightowns Kid – strong on breeding angle, weak on pace.  Grandmas Dream – strong on pace, reasonable trainer form in a race with generally weak recent trainer records.

Grandmas Dream would be the pick of the two for a small win bet.

18:50: A tricky race, nothing stands out on breeding, although the two by Ifraaj, that is Idiom and Rafella, should be well suited by conditions, though they are miles out of contention according to the betting.  Song of the Siren is strongly expected to make the pace and/ or race prominently, having an outstanding front runner figure.  His trainer, Andrew Balding, is also in great form right now, and although the horse has been off for a while, should give a good account.

Song of the Siren is therefore the pick, though a look in the paddock before the race is strongly recommended and should reveal how well the horse looks for his return to action in comparison with the rest of the field.

19:25: Another tricky little race which should be won by Timocracy, but is too short in the betting to be of interest.  Dansilver is rated a live threat but has been off for 80 days.  How fit will he be on his return to action?

The suggestion is to give this race a swerve; if you want to bet for a small interest in the race, combining the two above in a forecast bet would be the play.

19:55: Another nasty race to predict which should be won by the hot favourite Deck Walk, but is too short for comfort amongst a bunch of unexposed horses in a poor maiden.  At a longer price, Ibiza Sunset‘s trainer is in great form so a small each way bet (if the race remains at 8 runners, thus paying a place on the first 3) would be interesting.

20:25: An interesting betting race in which a few outsiders look to have chances better than their price indicates.  For a bunch of lightly raced 3 year olds racing over 12 furlongs, breeding may prove a good indicator of their potential to win this race.  As such, Hurricane Spear, Final Liberation and Dark and Dangerous look most interesting to focus on.  Revolutionary should lead early, and Dark and Dangerous will be held up, hopefully off a strong pace.  At a price of 10/1 plus, Dark and Dangerous may spring a surprise, and it may be worth playing up any winnings from previous races for a good each way bet.

The final day of Royal Ascot and a longer race for 2 year olds to tackle in the form of the Chesham.

The races are not getting any easier, though we are still (just) ahead on all 2 year old races due to the success of Power on the first day at 9/2.  The longer priced selections for the other races offer no prospect of a quick return, with a number of attempts being expected (certainly more than a few races over a few days) before landing 16/1 shots, for example.

Falls of Lora is today’s selection at around 5/1, though it’s possible the soft ground could throw a spanner in the works.  Horses towards the head of the market are again those to keep an eye on, though the odd shock is possible as with Big Audio in 2009 (returned at 22/1).   Sir Percy’s record with his first crop of juveniles is interesting, and at a massive price, despite a few defeats, it’s possible Yammos may go better than expected (according to his price, he’s expected to finish a distant 14th out of 16) though it is pushing the boundaries of reason to suggest he could win or be placed.  So, with an excellent win last time (generally a prerequisite in the trends), not far off this extended distance, Falls of Lora it is.   Her ability to cope with the ground is the only big unknown.

Day 4 and it’s the Albany Stakes.  The average rank in the betting for winners of this race is 4.38, with only 1 in 4 favourites going in over the last 8 runnings.

Of those towards the top of the market, Sajwah looks most interesting, put away for this race by a proven Royal Ascot trainer, whilst stepping up in trip at a longer price, Sweet Chilli should go well.   Sweet Chilli is the selection, if only because it’s another hugely competitive Royal Ascot race so it’s not a good idea to get bullish about anything, and at 16/1 a big outlay is not required for a decent interest.

3 races so far, 1 winner and 2 longer shots that were unplaced.

Today, it’s the Norfolk, and our second best race after the Coventry as far as the record of favourites is concerned.  So it pays to look at the top of the market, generally.

But we’re not going with the favourite per se – Pyman’s Theory is the choice, today.

1 winner from 2 yesterday, and one race only today – the Queen Mary.

The Queen Mary has the potential to throw up the odd outsider though generally horses at the head of the market fare best.

While Shumoos has an obvious chance this year, we think there may be better value elsewhere and are going to plump for Mark Johnston’s Vocational on a number of trend grounds.  First off, trainers who have done well in Royal Ascot 2 year old races in the past tend to do well, and Johnston has a good record.  Indeed, in the last 8 years he has only had 2 runners in this very race, with a win and a fourth for his efforts.  Fillies with a pre-March foaling date tend to do better, and whilst most fillies had won last time out, Vocational had plenty to excuse her last time out second.  At 18/1, she’s the each way play to small stakes.

Leaders and laggers, reflecting horses most likely to make the pace, and those most likely to start slowly at all races up to a mile, will be up a day in advance for the rest of Royal Ascot (and all other meetings occurring through the festival) at the following URL:

http://www.betwise.co.uk/leaders_and_laggers.txt

As per this month’s article in Racing Ahead, we’re following up on the general trends for Royal Ascot 2 year old races by highlighting the contenders that seem to fit from this year’s renewals.   Today, the Coventry Stakes and Windsor Castle.

In our analysis, the most compelling trend for the Coventry Stakes (4.25) was how well market favourites tend to perform.  That, coupled with being unbeaten and/or winning their last race.   It’s also a race for trainers who’ve already proved themselves at Royal Ascot.

Our two obvious contenders are therefore Mezmaaar and Power, currently vying for favouritism.  Power, trained by O’Brien,  is currently second favourite (as of 7 am) but we think this may flip by the time of the race.   He’s the trend selection.

The Windsor Castle (5.35)  has typically held some hope for outsiders and even trainers who have not previously had a Royal Ascot 2 year old winner.   Still, with 27 horses to choose from this represents no easy task…

Huma Bird, at 20-1, is the speculative selection, with Gentlemans Code nearer the front of the market, also feared.

(Sorry, it’s not the Epsom Derby, it’s still The Derby here at Betwise.)

It would be great to see Carlton House win for the story and the spectacle, but from a betting point of view, he looks far too short and takes lumps out of the book.  Nick Mordin and others have knocked the time and the form of the Dante this year, which may be one of the best historical trials, but was run this year in a slow time.

With the first and second favourite being trained by Stoute and O’Brien respectively, there is also distinct hyped feeling to the betting.  Time will tell, but this doesn’t look like a 2 horse race, despite the fact that one of these two winning is represented as a greater than 50% chance.

So this year’s Derby has the right ‘shape’ for a bet, with a number of other contenders looking great value.

But which one? (more…)