Archive for August, 2011

Epsom Downs Bank Holiday Monday

Monday, August 29th, 2011

Betting on bank holidays poses the problem of too many races to analyse.  In the hope that it eases the task a little, below a snapshot of those shortlisted for betting opportunities in all Epsom races today:

2.05 Epsom
Blank Czech
Regal Gold (should be in contention at half way, back to lay at a big price)
Gunner Will

2.30 Epsom
Sugar Beet (NB)
Mon Visage
Welsh Inlet (front runner, reasonable draw – back to lay)

3.05 Epsom (not clear where the draw advantage will be)
Stone of Folca (interesting long shot dropped in class)
Judge and Jury (solid recent form, likely to run a good race)

3.40 Epsom
Spanish Duke (NAP)
Measuring Time

4.15 Epsom (not a strong pick, Amateur jockeys’ race)
If I were a Boy

4.50 Epsom
Tenby Lady (good looking chance, but short in betting for such a competitive race)
Tiger Webb
Celestial Girl

5.25 Epsom
Danehill Dante


Ebor Handicap – choose a stayer by sire

Saturday, August 20th, 2011

1 mile 6 furlongs is an unusual trip as a percentage of the grand total of flat racing handicap distances.  Race analysis can often underestimate the additional stamina requirements which are needed to win at it.  There is not complete ignorance, but it’s typical to see analysis that supposes that horses that perform well over the more common trip of a mile and a half may be suited by the way in which they have run their races to perform well at the 2 furlong longer distance.

Of course they should also go a decent pace in the Ebor, which, with a big field, makes it a true test over the distance.

Using Smartform we’ve rated all the contenders according the winning distance strike rate of their sires, and have the following shortlist of 4 for the race (in order of sire strike):

1. Harlestone Times

2. Tactician

3. Vulcanite

3. Fox Hunt

Food for thought, since all are priced at 12/1 +…

Jockey rides today

Saturday, August 6th, 2011

For those who like analysing jockeys by meeting or playing spreads on jockey rides, Smartform is a great place to start your analysis.

The following query gives us all declared rides ordered by jockey with the number of mounts from highest to lowest:

>select distinct jockey_name, count(jockey_name) AS ‘rides’ from daily_runners join daily_races using (race_id) where meeting_date=CURDATE() group by jockey_name order by count(jockey_name) DESC;

For today’s racing that gives us:

| jockey_name       | rides           |
| T P Queally           |                 10 |
| Jim Crowley         |                 10 |
| S Sanders              |                  8 |
| K Fallon                 |                  7 |
| J P Spencer           |                  7 |
| B McHugh             |                  7 |
| D Nolan                  |                  7 |
| G Baker                  |                  7 |

Now we can drill on in on the mounts of any jockey we are interested in with an individual, one-line jockey query, using any combination of over 100 variables to analyse.