Archive for October, 2010
Leaders and Laggers up for Saturday 30th
Friday, October 29th, 2010The guide to pace in the race for all Saturday’s sub-mile races is now up in the Betwise Members’ Area.
Scoop 6 outsiders
Saturday, October 23rd, 2010Due to the £1 million carry over bonus, today’s Scoop 6 is a bit more interesting than usual – but only if you have sufficient permutations (and are prepared to risk a sufficient pot) to give yourself an interesting chance of winning. Otherwise, let’s say by applying horseracing judgement and skill we improve our chances against the odds tenfold – effectively betting on a 60,000/1 shot (assuming the minimum £2 stake). That’s not a fantastic chance of winning for improving your odds tenfold. Far better to spot one 10/1 shot that has a real Even chance, and stick something affordable on that.
Anyway, for those who want to have some fun with the Scoop 6, here are a few outsiders we’ve spotted through a Smartform analysis of today’s races, all of whom we think have better chances of winning than their odds imply, so as to give your permutations a change from the favourite:
Leg 1: Doncaster 1.55: Duchess Dora (interesting speed figures in a 5 furlong sprint)
Leg 2: Newbury 2.05: Surrey Star (more exposed than some but has recorded form at decent level)
Leg 3: Newbury 2.40: Poet (a very tricky race despite a small field with the favourite a worthy contender but Poet could improve for the step up in trip)
Leg 4: Doncaster 2.55: Seville (wouldn’t be the first time the supposed O’Brien second string comes good, but Casamento is another worthy favourite)
Leg 5: Newbury 3.10: Pretty Bonnie (it’s a rank outsider with lots of potential holes, but we like its recent Smartform speed rating, albeit over 6 furlongs)
Leg 6: Newbury 3.40: Blessed Biata (ok, hardly an outsider since there seems to be money around for it today, but not the favourite and may go very well).
Good luck if you’re playing!
Leaders and Laggers for Saturday
Friday, October 22nd, 2010Leaders and laggers, our guide to pace in all Saturday races under a mile, are now up in the Betwise Members’ area. Log in or sign up and see them for yourself for free.
Frankel and odds-on value?
Saturday, October 16th, 2010It goes against the grain to back any horse odds-on. After all, the prospect of losing more than you stand to gain seems to go against the whole allure of betting in the first place. Of course, that doesn’t mean that every odds-on shot is bad value, though in horseracing there is always room for error.
Odds-on shots in 3 mile chases can give punters good cause for an early coronary, but a fine colt so forward as Frankel over 7 furlongs at Newmarket? He’s not exactly got far to travel to the course either – what can go wrong between Warren Place and there? Well, plenty, of course. And in the run up to the race. We’ve all seen it, it’s not exactly like betting on the tide coming in. What are the dangers? Well, there are some. On speed figures and racecourse achievements, it’s Dream Ahead. But Frankel can probably take him – you’d think he had more scope to look at him. Does that matter? As the up and down runs of Workforce showed us this season, the best horse in the race can often get beat when it’s not his day. They’re not machines and all that. And the last couple of runnings of this race have gone to rank outsiders.
So much for the caveats. Frankel is currently 1.78 on Betfair. He looks an extremely progressive and forward colt, and the figures and gallop stories back that up. There’s horrible uncertainty about any bet due to none of the competitors being exposed, but that’s just the nature of betting on a Group 1 2 year old race. With all the talk of Frankel being completely overhyped, it’s just possible that punters may be searching for value that doesn’t exist elsewhere, and this could be one of those occasions when an odds-on shot is good value. The benefit of hindsight will tell us even more.
Pace in the race at York and Ascot today
Saturday, October 9th, 2010Where’s the pace in the race?
Leader and lagger ratings for Saturday are now up in the Betwise members’ area. Look at the key stats and decide for yourself…
Ascot and York are two courses where being drawn with the pace is often more important than the draw per se – meaning it is important to be drawn with the pace rather than on a particular part of the track. True, there can be marginal biases at 7 and 8 furlongs at York and Ascot (for example a negative in large fields where high drawn runners can be forced wide, as around the turn at York), but pace is always important over the straight courses.
In the 6 furlong Group 3 race at Ascot (3:05), for example, although the first two in the market (with Redford a very warm order drawn 16, and Genki as second favourite drawn 17), the leader and lagger stats suggest that the early pace in the race is towards the stands side, with Taajub, in stall 2 expected to be prominent early. Bewitched and Doncaster Rover may benefit most from his early tow.
Pace bias at Newmarket today
Saturday, October 2nd, 2010Today’s leader and lagger statistics for all today’s races under one mile are now up in the Betwise Members’ Area.
Looking down the card at Newmarket, it’s notable how many of the early pace runners are drawn high today. In the 2.25, State Opera and Fury are drawn 26 and 24, respectively. With a large number of runners, being drawn with the pace can be hugely important – moreover, with the stalls being on the far side today, high drawn runners also have the assistance of the rail.
So, whilst drawing a line under anything drawn less than 20 here may be a radical strategy, it is useful to narrow the field. The same comment applies to the Cambridgeshire, and even though this is a 9 furlong race, the sheer number of runners across the track means that being drawn with the pace is hugely important. Assuming there is no intrinsic track bias elsewhere, the best strategy again may be to draw a line under anything coming out of a draw under 20 – which would, in this case, eliminate the market leader.
Arc thoughts
Friday, October 1st, 2010Well, one thought really. Having been fortunate enough to back Urban Sea at 80/1 in 1993, it’s hard to forget the chance of good older mares who are often forgotten in the betting, as the market leans towards the next “superstar” 3 year old.
So who fits the bill in this year’s Arc? Well, one horse leaps off the page: Plumania. Previous winner over this distance at Longchamp. Beaten last time out only by Midday – who would surely be near favourite if lining up in this contest.
Trained by Andre Fabre – who has won no fewer than 6 Arcs in the past 20 years. Ridden by Olivier Peslier – who has won 3 Arcs in the past 20 years.
Widely available at 25/1. It’s not hard to find dangers – this is the Arc after all. But it’s perhaps one of the better each way bets you’ll find this month.