Archive for July, 2011

Stewards Cup by speed, pace and sire

Saturday, July 30th, 2011

Dandy Nicholls has no fewer than 6 runners declared in today’s cavalry charge, with 5 of them occupying the top 5 places for the strongest likely pacesetters in the race.  Even odder is that the top 4 are drawn 17, 15, 13 and 14 respectively.   So expect strong pace in the middle of the track.

High Standing is the standout pick on sire statistics, drawn 28, so with the stands rail draw, the champion jockey to assist, and a nice win last time out.

Ancient Cross’ last time out win came out well in terms of speed figures, but was with cut in the ground over 5 furlongs.  Of those that have performed well on the clock at Goodwood over 6 furlongs, Crown Choice is the clear pick with a nice win in May over course and distance.

So, 3 at huge prices to take against the field:

Happily Crown Choice is drawn on the other side of the track in 6, so provides some hedge against High Standing, with Tajneed taken to do better than should be expected in the middle of the course.

Shamardal at Ascot day 2

Sunday, July 24th, 2011

So not much luck for Shamardal’s progeny yesterday – neither of his runners were placed.

Let’s see if the overall impressive strike rate of this sire shows through today, running the same query as previously in Smartform in order to find any qualifying runners.  This time we’ll add in Smartform’s forecast price field.

mysql> select forecast_price, name, course, scheduled_time from daily_races join daily_runners using (race_id) where meeting_date=CURDATE() and sire_name = “Shamardal”;
| forecast_price | name           | course | scheduled_time           |
| 5/2                    | Burj Nahar  | Ascot  | 2011-07-24 15:25:00   |
1 row in set (0.88 sec)

So it’s just Burj Nahar in the 3.25 – apparently fancied a bit more by the market than yesterday’s contenders.

Shamardal at Ascot

Saturday, July 23rd, 2011

Shamardal is of course at stud, but his progeny have a decent strike rate, as such some decently priced winners can be thrown up when they are racing under the right conditions.

How to find progeny of Shamardal racing at Ascot today, where their sire won the St James Palace stakes (well, it was run at York that year, to be exact)…?

It’s a simple query in Smartform, as follows:

>select name, course, scheduled_time from daily_races join daily_runners using (race_id) where meeting_date=CURDATE() and sire_name = “Shamardal”;

The results, returned in less than a second, are:

Alnashmy | Ascot     | 2011-07-23 15:15:00
Below Zero | Ascot     | 2011-07-23 15:50:00

Both are decent prices, both racing over 1 mile and 7 furlongs respectively (good trips for their sire), so good luck to them.

Newbury angles Saturday

Saturday, July 16th, 2011

Some favourite angles for gaining an edge over the odds seem less potent at Newbury.  Front running pace is one of those.  Whereas front runners can gain a significant advantage on tight, turning courses they are more likely than not to set the race up for something coming off the pace at Newbury.   Most races on the wide, galloping course at Newbury are usually run at a good pace with plenty of room for manoevre, meaning genuinely fast, long striding types tend to do well.  By the same token, horses racing over whatever distance need to get every yard of the trip.

The angle we’re going to use is therefore the distance strike rate of each of the sires for all races over a mile at Newbury today, combined with the age and going strike rates for those sires, to see if we can spot any interesting contenders. Below are the top 2 for each of the qualifying races:

2.55 (1 mile) Watneya, Al Mayasah

16.05 (1 m 2f) Anmar, Distant Memories

17.10 (2 miles)  Morar, Dynamic Drive