Archive for December, 2010

Navan feature race

Saturday, December 18th, 2010

Luckily one jumps fixture survives today, albeit on the other side of the Irish sea.

A quick check in Smartform:

>select scheduled_time, course, penalty_value from daily_races where meeting_date=CURDATE() order by penalty_value

Shows us that the 13:15 at Navan is the most valuable race of the day. A grade 1 novice hurdle, full of promising types (we wouldn’t expect much else in a Grade 1 novice race).  As such, taking a short price is a risk, unless we are convinced that that the favourite(s) are clear in ability from the rest of the field.  I’m not convinced at this stage, so prefer a horse that has shown the ability to win this at a longer price.

Oscars Well at 8/1 fits the bill nicely, having shown progressive form and clocking a useful speed figure last time out.  I’d be surprised if Oscars Well wasn’t in contention at the end of the race (though again it’s a novice hurdle, so caveat emptor), meaning there may well be an opportunity to lay off on the exchanges, to leave a win bet to nothing (or even a small profit) before the race has ended…

Pace for Lingfield tomorrow

Friday, December 17th, 2010

Leader and lagger statistics for Lingfield sprints (classified as sub one mile races) tomorrow – 4 races in all – are now up for free access in the Betwise members’ area.

Tingle Creek today

Saturday, December 11th, 2010

Something to live up to with this Saturday’s feature race analysis with a high success rate for identifying the winner in the past few Saturdays, including 2 winning at double digit prices.   Today’s feature race is of course the Tingle Creek, bizzarely run at Cheltenham.

The chances of Master Minded are obvious, but with him still to prove he is really back to his best, he is a poor betting proposition at 10/11.

However, as such a short favourite in a 9 runner field, he sets up the shape of the race from a betting point of view for a range of possible each way shots.  Gavain, Kalahari King and Somersby are all form choices you’d expect to have a good chance of running into a place, but again at the prices, we’ll only recover our stake if Master Minded is indeed back to his best.   Moreover, with only 3 places and 4 horses named so far (and 5 other horses in the race not yet considered), there’s a strong chance picking one of them will lose both parts of the stake.

So, from a betting point of view, we’re going to take a chance to small stakes each way with a longer priced shot from a yard that knows how to win top class chases.  I’m So Lucky showed lots of potential before its break, and may improve enough to make the frame.  It’s all about risk and reward, and for this race small risk is advised with 25/1 representing a reasonable reward.

Saturday All Weather pace statistics

Friday, December 10th, 2010

Pace statistics for all sprints at Southwell, Wolverhampton and Lingfield tomorrow are now up in “Saturday Front Runners” in the Betwise members area – free to sign up.  Draw info., forecast prices and lagging statistics also included.

Today’s feature race according to Smartform

Saturday, December 4th, 2010

In case anyone hadn’t noticed, the weather has disrupted the racing schedule and all the feature races we might have been assessing today on National Hunt cards at Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby have fallen victim to the Big Freeze.

In the circumstances, UK racing has done well to stage 3 meetings today (with one in Ireland at Dundalk), but it’s all low level All Weather stuff.  Is there a feature race among this lot?  Not really, but we can use the Smartform database to rank prize money from all the races and see at least which is the most valuable.

A simple query as follows (taking under a second to run) shows us all the races scheduled to go ahead today, together with their prize money

>select scheduled_time, course, penalty_value from daily_races where meeting_date=CURDATE();

There are 29 in total.  If we want to see the top 3, ordered by their value, from the highest to the lowest, we can extend our query as follows.

>select scheduled_time, course, penalty_value from daily_races where meeting_date=CURDATE() order by penalty_value DESC limit 3;

What are they?

So, the 2.55 at Southwell has become our feature race.  Wow, the weather really is bad!

What will win?  A different question.  A race I’d prefer to swerve, though an interesting exchange play –  from a back-before-the-race to a lay-in-running perspective – is Cape Vale, who, according to our Leader and Lagger statistics, should set the pace.