For those who like analysing jockeys by meeting or playing spreads on jockey rides, Smartform is a great place to start your analysis.

The following query gives us all declared rides ordered by jockey with the number of mounts from highest to lowest:

>select distinct jockey_name, count(jockey_name) AS ‘rides’ from daily_runners join daily_races using (race_id) where meeting_date=CURDATE() group by jockey_name order by count(jockey_name) DESC;

For today’s racing that gives us:

+——————–+————-+
| jockey_name       | rides           |
+——————–+————-+
| T P Queally           |                 10 |
| Jim Crowley         |                 10 |
| S Sanders              |                  8 |
| K Fallon                 |                  7 |
| J P Spencer           |                  7 |
| B McHugh             |                  7 |
| D Nolan                  |                  7 |
| G Baker                  |                  7 |

Now we can drill on in on the mounts of any jockey we are interested in with an individual, one-line jockey query, using any combination of over 100 variables to analyse.

Some favourite angles for gaining an edge over the odds seem less potent at Newbury.  Front running pace is one of those.  Whereas front runners can gain a significant advantage on tight, turning courses they are more likely than not to set the race up for something coming off the pace at Newbury.   Most races on the wide, galloping course at Newbury are usually run at a good pace with plenty of room for manoevre, meaning genuinely fast, long striding types tend to do well.  By the same token, horses racing over whatever distance need to get every yard of the trip.

The angle we’re going to use is therefore the distance strike rate of each of the sires for all races over a mile at Newbury today, combined with the age and going strike rates for those sires, to see if we can spot any interesting contenders. Below are the top 2 for each of the qualifying races:

2.55 (1 mile) Watneya, Al Mayasah

16.05 (1 m 2f) Anmar, Distant Memories

17.10 (2 miles)  Morar, Dynamic Drive

We’ve been experimenting with sire statistics compiled from Smartform, looking at past strike rate records of sires for their progeny over distance, age and going.  Salisbury is one of the truer, tougher course where natural ability over the trip and going is paramount, so is as good a place as any to use these as an aid to the selection process.   So, below are the top few contenders rated by sire (only shown to depth past 1 where scoring highly) for each race on today’s Salisbury card:

14:00: Whinging Willie, Graphic

14:35:  Maccabees, Itsonlymakebelieve, Cavaleiro

15:05:  Sasheen

15:35:  Alfresco

16:10:  Sense Of Pride, Souter Point

16:45: Grand Gold, Sir Glanton

17:15:  Gatewood, Proof, Anatolian

17:45:  Little Book, Oliver’s Gold, Invent

A friend is off to the races in deepest Surrey tonight and asked for a few pointers for the meeting, so we’ve dusted off a few tools crafted from Smartform to produce some analysis that may help below:

17:50:   Arabian Falcon is worth a small win bet –  strong from a race pace angle (important over 5 furlongs);  also strong on 2 year old breeding.

18:20:  Speightowns Kid – strong on breeding angle, weak on pace.  Grandmas Dream – strong on pace, reasonable trainer form in a race with generally weak recent trainer records.

Grandmas Dream would be the pick of the two for a small win bet.

18:50: A tricky race, nothing stands out on breeding, although the two by Ifraaj, that is Idiom and Rafella, should be well suited by conditions, though they are miles out of contention according to the betting.  Song of the Siren is strongly expected to make the pace and/ or race prominently, having an outstanding front runner figure.  His trainer, Andrew Balding, is also in great form right now, and although the horse has been off for a while, should give a good account.

Song of the Siren is therefore the pick, though a look in the paddock before the race is strongly recommended and should reveal how well the horse looks for his return to action in comparison with the rest of the field.

19:25: Another tricky little race which should be won by Timocracy, but is too short in the betting to be of interest.  Dansilver is rated a live threat but has been off for 80 days.  How fit will he be on his return to action?

The suggestion is to give this race a swerve; if you want to bet for a small interest in the race, combining the two above in a forecast bet would be the play.

19:55: Another nasty race to predict which should be won by the hot favourite Deck Walk, but is too short for comfort amongst a bunch of unexposed horses in a poor maiden.  At a longer price, Ibiza Sunset‘s trainer is in great form so a small each way bet (if the race remains at 8 runners, thus paying a place on the first 3) would be interesting.

20:25: An interesting betting race in which a few outsiders look to have chances better than their price indicates.  For a bunch of lightly raced 3 year olds racing over 12 furlongs, breeding may prove a good indicator of their potential to win this race.  As such, Hurricane Spear, Final Liberation and Dark and Dangerous look most interesting to focus on.  Revolutionary should lead early, and Dark and Dangerous will be held up, hopefully off a strong pace.  At a price of 10/1 plus, Dark and Dangerous may spring a surprise, and it may be worth playing up any winnings from previous races for a good each way bet.

The final day of Royal Ascot and a longer race for 2 year olds to tackle in the form of the Chesham.

The races are not getting any easier, though we are still (just) ahead on all 2 year old races due to the success of Power on the first day at 9/2.  The longer priced selections for the other races offer no prospect of a quick return, with a number of attempts being expected (certainly more than a few races over a few days) before landing 16/1 shots, for example.

Falls of Lora is today’s selection at around 5/1, though it’s possible the soft ground could throw a spanner in the works.  Horses towards the head of the market are again those to keep an eye on, though the odd shock is possible as with Big Audio in 2009 (returned at 22/1).   Sir Percy’s record with his first crop of juveniles is interesting, and at a massive price, despite a few defeats, it’s possible Yammos may go better than expected (according to his price, he’s expected to finish a distant 14th out of 16) though it is pushing the boundaries of reason to suggest he could win or be placed.  So, with an excellent win last time (generally a prerequisite in the trends), not far off this extended distance, Falls of Lora it is.   Her ability to cope with the ground is the only big unknown.

Day 4 and it’s the Albany Stakes.  The average rank in the betting for winners of this race is 4.38, with only 1 in 4 favourites going in over the last 8 runnings.

Of those towards the top of the market, Sajwah looks most interesting, put away for this race by a proven Royal Ascot trainer, whilst stepping up in trip at a longer price, Sweet Chilli should go well.   Sweet Chilli is the selection, if only because it’s another hugely competitive Royal Ascot race so it’s not a good idea to get bullish about anything, and at 16/1 a big outlay is not required for a decent interest.