Posts Tagged ‘Ebor’

Ebor Handicap – choose a stayer by sire

Saturday, August 20th, 2011

1 mile 6 furlongs is an unusual trip as a percentage of the grand total of flat racing handicap distances.  Race analysis can often underestimate the additional stamina requirements which are needed to win at it.  There is not complete ignorance, but it’s typical to see analysis that supposes that horses that perform well over the more common trip of a mile and a half may be suited by the way in which they have run their races to perform well at the 2 furlong longer distance.

Of course they should also go a decent pace in the Ebor, which, with a big field, makes it a true test over the distance.

Using Smartform we’ve rated all the contenders according the winning distance strike rate of their sires, and have the following shortlist of 4 for the race (in order of sire strike):

1. Harlestone Times

2. Tactician

3. Vulcanite

3. Fox Hunt

Food for thought, since all are priced at 12/1 +…

Ebor trends

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

A rare midweek post for us, motivated by the Ebor handicap (3.25, York) today.  At the risk of stating the obvious, good racing analysis is often simply about knowing when to use the right tool for the right job – eg. the same methods you would use to analyse a 5 furlong sprint at Epsom will not do you much good in finding the winner of the Grand National.

Big handicap races are often in a category of their own, and therefore trend analysis, analysing the profile of previous winners of the same race, can be a useful method which helps narrow the field in looking for the winner of such races.

Here are the significant past trends that I think are worth concentrating on in the Ebor Handicap:

1.  Previous winners are generally lower in the handicap, carrying lower weights.

2.  Older horses (generally 4 and 5 yr olds) have been favoured, rather than 3 year olds, in the last 10 years (though no 3 yr old is running today!).

3.  Lower draws (somewhat bizzarely for a longer distance race) have always been favoured.

You can look at the racecard and make your own analysis by applying these trends.  For me, 2 horses stand out that qualify by doing so:

Elyaddi, drawn 3 and ridden by last year’s winning jockey and Bernie The Bolt, drawn 2 and ridden by Jimmy Fortune.  Desert Sea is drawn 1 and is also low in the handicap, but I don’t like the odds of a 7 year old winning.  Looking at the form, I like the chance of Bernie The Bolt to keep improving and with a win and place bet at a price of 16/1.