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Ebor Handicap – choose a stayer by sire

By colin on Saturday, August 20th, 2011

1 mile 6 furlongs is an unusual trip as a percentage of the grand total of flat racing handicap distances.  Race analysis can often underestimate the additional stamina requirements which are needed to win at it.  There is not complete ignorance, but it’s typical to see analysis that supposes that horses that perform well over the more common trip of a mile and a half may be suited by the way in which they have run their races to perform well at the 2 furlong longer distance.

Of course they should also go a decent pace in the Ebor, which, with a big field, makes it a true test over the distance.

Using Smartform we’ve rated all the contenders according the winning distance strike rate of their sires, and have the following shortlist of 4 for the race (in order of sire strike):

1. Harlestone Times

2. Tactician

3. Vulcanite

3. Fox Hunt

Food for thought, since all are priced at 12/1 +…

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