Posts Tagged ‘London Gold’

Bank Holiday Front Runner analysis

Monday, May 31st, 2010

Saturday’s front running analysis went as expected, with the top prediction Masta Plasta breaking early and making most of the running from the front.  He finished second, but traded solidly at lower prices (as low as 2.3, having been available at 6.0+ before the off) in running on Betfair.

Today we will look at a couple of the top ratings for two of today’s earlier sprints, the opener at Goodwood over 5 furlongs and the 6 furlong 2.40 at Leicester.  These races were chosen because they are sprints where our probability rating for the horse leading from the front exceeds 40%.

Goodwood 2.00, 5f:
Crazy In Love, 0.43, 4
Mini Bon Bon, 0.29, 7

Leicester 2.40, 6f:
London Gold, 0.46, 4
Dancing Freddy, 0.16, 5

As before, the numbers after each horse represent an estimation of its percentage chance (where the chances of all runners add to 100%) of leading from the front today, followed by the horse’s draw today.  All of the caveats and other angles to consider from Saturday’s post still apply; in other words, this is a useful starting point for considering the shape of a sprint race, but other metrics are of course needed.

In terms of considering a solid back to lay proposition, we want to see some other credentials that suggest a likely front runner will be in contention for some way in the race (as well as at the start).  On that basis we are not so crazy about Crazy in Love (we would have preferred Mini Bon Bon, but this has now been declared a non-runner) in the first at Goodwood.   There is good price margin for Crazy in Love’s price to reduce from the 9.2 currently available if she leads from the front, but with few runs on which to base our prediction about each runner, and lack of confidence about this horse’s ability, the right course of action is to swerve the race.

The top rated front running candidate London Gold in the 2.40 at Leicester is more interesting, but (unfortunately) seems to be well fancied by connections and feared by bookmakers already.  Tissue prices for today’s race had London Gold rated at a 9/2 + chance (the Racing Post site shows 9/2, the Sporting Life 8/1), but it is currently available at a general 7/2 only.  This price doesn’t leave much margin for odds reduction in early running, so it is passed over from a back to lay point of view.  However, its potential win chances in the race, especially if it races prominently throughout as we expect, merit further inspection, since there is no reason to suppose it cannot win if it is still in contention in the final furlong.