Today’s feature race according to Smartform
By colin on Saturday, December 4th, 2010In case anyone hadn’t noticed, the weather has disrupted the racing schedule and all the feature races we might have been assessing today on National Hunt cards at Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby have fallen victim to the Big Freeze.
In the circumstances, UK racing has done well to stage 3 meetings today (with one in Ireland at Dundalk), but it’s all low level All Weather stuff. Is there a feature race among this lot? Not really, but we can use the Smartform database to rank prize money from all the races and see at least which is the most valuable.
A simple query as follows (taking under a second to run) shows us all the races scheduled to go ahead today, together with their prize money
>select scheduled_time, course, penalty_value from daily_races where meeting_date=CURDATE();
There are 29 in total. If we want to see the top 3, ordered by their value, from the highest to the lowest, we can extend our query as follows.
>select scheduled_time, course, penalty_value from daily_races where meeting_date=CURDATE() order by penalty_value DESC limit 3;
What are they?
So, the 2.55 at Southwell has become our feature race. Wow, the weather really is bad!
What will win? A different question. A race I’d prefer to swerve, though an interesting exchange play – from a back-before-the-race to a lay-in-running perspective – is Cape Vale, who, according to our Leader and Lagger statistics, should set the pace.
Is Denman opposable today?
By colin on Saturday, November 27th, 2010Everyone loves a superstar chaser and Denman is no exception.
I’m sure every racing enthusiast would love to see Denman come back off a long break and put up another awesome weight-carrying performance in the top class handicap that is the Hennessy.
But look at this:
– His form figures read: 2F/1U24- Ok, the penultimate “2” was the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but it’s doubtful Denman is improving at the age of 10 – and he has failed to complete in 2 out of the last 6 of his starts.
– Question: How many 10 year olds or older horses have won the Hennessy in the last 50 years?
– Answer: 3.
Big weight carrying performances in the Hennessy have a rather more encouraging record. 11 horses have carried 11 stone 10 or more to victory, including Denman, twice(!) in the last 3 years. A feat comparable with, if not equal to, the legendary Arkle. But Arkle was 7 when he won the first of his back to back Hennessy victories in 1964. And even Arkle failed to win a third – plus he was a younger horse with an impeccable recent record (having won his third Gold Cup in the same year) when he tried.
In many ways, it’s hard to see why Denman is such a short-priced favourite for the race. Of course, his formidable trainer would not be competing him unless he thought he had a great chance of winning – but he also has 4 others in the race!
So – it’s probably fair to say that whilst a horse of Denman’s class should not be underestimated, and we would all like to see a winning superstar, today he’s not the best betting proposition.
Is there a betting play in the race? With many of the other 17 contenders unexposed at this level, it’s hard to single one out.
Ironically, Denman may be the most solid bet on the exchanges – but not backing him (or laying him) before the race.
Instead, provided he doesn’t have one of his notorious recent “off-days”, his class should see him thereabouts towards the end of the race. If he is going well coming to the final turn at Newbury, laying him at an even shorter price in-running may be the most interesting betting proposition – especially if one of the other contenders that are carrying 2 stone less are also going well…
Paddy Power Gold Cup thoughts
By colin on Saturday, November 13th, 2010Thoughts briefly:
At 28/1, Little Josh, coming out top in our leader statistics for the race, is an interesting back to lay play.
Can’t see beyond Great Endeavour from a win perspective. But with so many, including Great Endeavour, yet to run this season, this is not a great race for confident punting.
Leaders and laggers for the last of the Flat turf season
By colin on Friday, November 5th, 2010Leaders and laggers, our guide to pace in the race for all Flat races under a mile, are now up online in the Betwise Members’ area for all Saturday’s qualifying races.
Next week we’ll start showing our pace statistics for selected National Hunt racing – since pace also has an important bearing there, more than you might think at first glance…
Leaders and Laggers up for Saturday 30th
By colin on Friday, October 29th, 2010The guide to pace in the race for all Saturday’s sub-mile races is now up in the Betwise Members’ Area.
Scoop 6 outsiders
By colin on Saturday, October 23rd, 2010Due to the £1 million carry over bonus, today’s Scoop 6 is a bit more interesting than usual – but only if you have sufficient permutations (and are prepared to risk a sufficient pot) to give yourself an interesting chance of winning. Otherwise, let’s say by applying horseracing judgement and skill we improve our chances against the odds tenfold – effectively betting on a 60,000/1 shot (assuming the minimum £2 stake). That’s not a fantastic chance of winning for improving your odds tenfold. Far better to spot one 10/1 shot that has a real Even chance, and stick something affordable on that.
Anyway, for those who want to have some fun with the Scoop 6, here are a few outsiders we’ve spotted through a Smartform analysis of today’s races, all of whom we think have better chances of winning than their odds imply, so as to give your permutations a change from the favourite:
Leg 1: Doncaster 1.55: Duchess Dora (interesting speed figures in a 5 furlong sprint)
Leg 2: Newbury 2.05: Surrey Star (more exposed than some but has recorded form at decent level)
Leg 3: Newbury 2.40: Poet (a very tricky race despite a small field with the favourite a worthy contender but Poet could improve for the step up in trip)
Leg 4: Doncaster 2.55: Seville (wouldn’t be the first time the supposed O’Brien second string comes good, but Casamento is another worthy favourite)
Leg 5: Newbury 3.10: Pretty Bonnie (it’s a rank outsider with lots of potential holes, but we like its recent Smartform speed rating, albeit over 6 furlongs)
Leg 6: Newbury 3.40: Blessed Biata (ok, hardly an outsider since there seems to be money around for it today, but not the favourite and may go very well).
Good luck if you’re playing!
Leaders and Laggers for Saturday
By colin on Friday, October 22nd, 2010Leaders and laggers, our guide to pace in all Saturday races under a mile, are now up in the Betwise Members’ area. Log in or sign up and see them for yourself for free.
Frankel and odds-on value?
By colin on Saturday, October 16th, 2010It goes against the grain to back any horse odds-on. After all, the prospect of losing more than you stand to gain seems to go against the whole allure of betting in the first place. Of course, that doesn’t mean that every odds-on shot is bad value, though in horseracing there is always room for error.
Odds-on shots in 3 mile chases can give punters good cause for an early coronary, but a fine colt so forward as Frankel over 7 furlongs at Newmarket? He’s not exactly got far to travel to the course either – what can go wrong between Warren Place and there? Well, plenty, of course. And in the run up to the race. We’ve all seen it, it’s not exactly like betting on the tide coming in. What are the dangers? Well, there are some. On speed figures and racecourse achievements, it’s Dream Ahead. But Frankel can probably take him – you’d think he had more scope to look at him. Does that matter? As the up and down runs of Workforce showed us this season, the best horse in the race can often get beat when it’s not his day. They’re not machines and all that. And the last couple of runnings of this race have gone to rank outsiders.
So much for the caveats. Frankel is currently 1.78 on Betfair. He looks an extremely progressive and forward colt, and the figures and gallop stories back that up. There’s horrible uncertainty about any bet due to none of the competitors being exposed, but that’s just the nature of betting on a Group 1 2 year old race. With all the talk of Frankel being completely overhyped, it’s just possible that punters may be searching for value that doesn’t exist elsewhere, and this could be one of those occasions when an odds-on shot is good value. The benefit of hindsight will tell us even more.
Pace in the race at York and Ascot today
By colin on Saturday, October 9th, 2010Where’s the pace in the race?
Leader and lagger ratings for Saturday are now up in the Betwise members’ area. Look at the key stats and decide for yourself…
Ascot and York are two courses where being drawn with the pace is often more important than the draw per se – meaning it is important to be drawn with the pace rather than on a particular part of the track. True, there can be marginal biases at 7 and 8 furlongs at York and Ascot (for example a negative in large fields where high drawn runners can be forced wide, as around the turn at York), but pace is always important over the straight courses.
In the 6 furlong Group 3 race at Ascot (3:05), for example, although the first two in the market (with Redford a very warm order drawn 16, and Genki as second favourite drawn 17), the leader and lagger stats suggest that the early pace in the race is towards the stands side, with Taajub, in stall 2 expected to be prominent early. Bewitched and Doncaster Rover may benefit most from his early tow.
Pace bias at Newmarket today
By colin on Saturday, October 2nd, 2010Today’s leader and lagger statistics for all today’s races under one mile are now up in the Betwise Members’ Area.
Looking down the card at Newmarket, it’s notable how many of the early pace runners are drawn high today. In the 2.25, State Opera and Fury are drawn 26 and 24, respectively. With a large number of runners, being drawn with the pace can be hugely important – moreover, with the stalls being on the far side today, high drawn runners also have the assistance of the rail.
So, whilst drawing a line under anything drawn less than 20 here may be a radical strategy, it is useful to narrow the field. The same comment applies to the Cambridgeshire, and even though this is a 9 furlong race, the sheer number of runners across the track means that being drawn with the pace is hugely important. Assuming there is no intrinsic track bias elsewhere, the best strategy again may be to draw a line under anything coming out of a draw under 20 – which would, in this case, eliminate the market leader.