Paddy Power Gold Cup thoughts
By colin on Saturday, November 13th, 2010Thoughts briefly:
At 28/1, Little Josh, coming out top in our leader statistics for the race, is an interesting back to lay play.
Can’t see beyond Great Endeavour from a win perspective. But with so many, including Great Endeavour, yet to run this season, this is not a great race for confident punting.
Leaders and laggers for the last of the Flat turf season
By colin on Friday, November 5th, 2010Leaders and laggers, our guide to pace in the race for all Flat races under a mile, are now up online in the Betwise Members’ area for all Saturday’s qualifying races.
Next week we’ll start showing our pace statistics for selected National Hunt racing – since pace also has an important bearing there, more than you might think at first glance…
Leaders and Laggers up for Saturday 30th
By colin on Friday, October 29th, 2010The guide to pace in the race for all Saturday’s sub-mile races is now up in the Betwise Members’ Area.
Scoop 6 outsiders
By colin on Saturday, October 23rd, 2010Due to the £1 million carry over bonus, today’s Scoop 6 is a bit more interesting than usual – but only if you have sufficient permutations (and are prepared to risk a sufficient pot) to give yourself an interesting chance of winning. Otherwise, let’s say by applying horseracing judgement and skill we improve our chances against the odds tenfold – effectively betting on a 60,000/1 shot (assuming the minimum £2 stake). That’s not a fantastic chance of winning for improving your odds tenfold. Far better to spot one 10/1 shot that has a real Even chance, and stick something affordable on that.
Anyway, for those who want to have some fun with the Scoop 6, here are a few outsiders we’ve spotted through a Smartform analysis of today’s races, all of whom we think have better chances of winning than their odds imply, so as to give your permutations a change from the favourite:
Leg 1: Doncaster 1.55: Duchess Dora (interesting speed figures in a 5 furlong sprint)
Leg 2: Newbury 2.05: Surrey Star (more exposed than some but has recorded form at decent level)
Leg 3: Newbury 2.40: Poet (a very tricky race despite a small field with the favourite a worthy contender but Poet could improve for the step up in trip)
Leg 4: Doncaster 2.55: Seville (wouldn’t be the first time the supposed O’Brien second string comes good, but Casamento is another worthy favourite)
Leg 5: Newbury 3.10: Pretty Bonnie (it’s a rank outsider with lots of potential holes, but we like its recent Smartform speed rating, albeit over 6 furlongs)
Leg 6: Newbury 3.40: Blessed Biata (ok, hardly an outsider since there seems to be money around for it today, but not the favourite and may go very well).
Good luck if you’re playing!
Leaders and Laggers for Saturday
By colin on Friday, October 22nd, 2010Leaders and laggers, our guide to pace in all Saturday races under a mile, are now up in the Betwise Members’ area. Log in or sign up and see them for yourself for free.
Frankel and odds-on value?
By colin on Saturday, October 16th, 2010It goes against the grain to back any horse odds-on. After all, the prospect of losing more than you stand to gain seems to go against the whole allure of betting in the first place. Of course, that doesn’t mean that every odds-on shot is bad value, though in horseracing there is always room for error.
Odds-on shots in 3 mile chases can give punters good cause for an early coronary, but a fine colt so forward as Frankel over 7 furlongs at Newmarket? He’s not exactly got far to travel to the course either – what can go wrong between Warren Place and there? Well, plenty, of course. And in the run up to the race. We’ve all seen it, it’s not exactly like betting on the tide coming in. What are the dangers? Well, there are some. On speed figures and racecourse achievements, it’s Dream Ahead. But Frankel can probably take him – you’d think he had more scope to look at him. Does that matter? As the up and down runs of Workforce showed us this season, the best horse in the race can often get beat when it’s not his day. They’re not machines and all that. And the last couple of runnings of this race have gone to rank outsiders.
So much for the caveats. Frankel is currently 1.78 on Betfair. He looks an extremely progressive and forward colt, and the figures and gallop stories back that up. There’s horrible uncertainty about any bet due to none of the competitors being exposed, but that’s just the nature of betting on a Group 1 2 year old race. With all the talk of Frankel being completely overhyped, it’s just possible that punters may be searching for value that doesn’t exist elsewhere, and this could be one of those occasions when an odds-on shot is good value. The benefit of hindsight will tell us even more.
Pace in the race at York and Ascot today
By colin on Saturday, October 9th, 2010Where’s the pace in the race?
Leader and lagger ratings for Saturday are now up in the Betwise members’ area. Look at the key stats and decide for yourself…
Ascot and York are two courses where being drawn with the pace is often more important than the draw per se – meaning it is important to be drawn with the pace rather than on a particular part of the track. True, there can be marginal biases at 7 and 8 furlongs at York and Ascot (for example a negative in large fields where high drawn runners can be forced wide, as around the turn at York), but pace is always important over the straight courses.
In the 6 furlong Group 3 race at Ascot (3:05), for example, although the first two in the market (with Redford a very warm order drawn 16, and Genki as second favourite drawn 17), the leader and lagger stats suggest that the early pace in the race is towards the stands side, with Taajub, in stall 2 expected to be prominent early. Bewitched and Doncaster Rover may benefit most from his early tow.
Pace bias at Newmarket today
By colin on Saturday, October 2nd, 2010Today’s leader and lagger statistics for all today’s races under one mile are now up in the Betwise Members’ Area.
Looking down the card at Newmarket, it’s notable how many of the early pace runners are drawn high today. In the 2.25, State Opera and Fury are drawn 26 and 24, respectively. With a large number of runners, being drawn with the pace can be hugely important – moreover, with the stalls being on the far side today, high drawn runners also have the assistance of the rail.
So, whilst drawing a line under anything drawn less than 20 here may be a radical strategy, it is useful to narrow the field. The same comment applies to the Cambridgeshire, and even though this is a 9 furlong race, the sheer number of runners across the track means that being drawn with the pace is hugely important. Assuming there is no intrinsic track bias elsewhere, the best strategy again may be to draw a line under anything coming out of a draw under 20 – which would, in this case, eliminate the market leader.
Arc thoughts
By colin on Friday, October 1st, 2010Well, one thought really. Having been fortunate enough to back Urban Sea at 80/1 in 1993, it’s hard to forget the chance of good older mares who are often forgotten in the betting, as the market leans towards the next “superstar” 3 year old.
So who fits the bill in this year’s Arc? Well, one horse leaps off the page: Plumania. Previous winner over this distance at Longchamp. Beaten last time out only by Midday – who would surely be near favourite if lining up in this contest.
Trained by Andre Fabre – who has won no fewer than 6 Arcs in the past 20 years. Ridden by Olivier Peslier – who has won 3 Arcs in the past 20 years.
Widely available at 25/1. It’s not hard to find dangers – this is the Arc after all. But it’s perhaps one of the better each way bets you’ll find this month.
Pace analysis for key sprints today
By colin on Saturday, September 25th, 2010Last week we picked the winning side for the Ayr Silver and Gold Cup (far side group for Silver and stands side group for Gold) – surely debunking the myth that there was a track or intrinsic “draw” bias to the near side. Whilst track bias is always possible through iniquitous watering or course conformation, for flat galloping tracks knowing where the strongest pace is often key to knowing which draw position may be advantageous.
All the pace statistics for today’s sprints are online for free perusal in the Betwise Members’ Area. Reader Alan has also produced a nice visual representation of some of today’s key sprints using the ratings as follows:
Haydock 3.10: http://i54.tinypic.com/juem9z.jpg
Ascot 3.40: http://i53.tinypic.com/2aaey4h.jpg
Haydock 3.45: http://i56.tinypic.com/11kcg7m.jpg
Using early pace as a predictor of where it makes sense to be drawn, we can see that We Have A Dream, Flying Statesman and Waveband, in stalls 12, 14 and 16 create the strongest pace bias towards the stands rail. Also, the rail is a useful guide for runners at Haydock, than being stuck out in the centre of the course. It may pay to concentrate on runners drawn 10 and above in this case.
In the 3.45 at haydock, the pace is again in the top half of the draw, but concentrated in the centre, in stalls 8, 10 and 11, with Foxy Music, in the plum rail draw in 17 also having shown early pace before. Of course, there’s nothing to say that these fast paced horses can’t also make all and win, though on the straight at Haydock and Ascot that is a rarer feat than at turning tracks.
Finally, in a mammoth field of 29 the pace bias may be most informative at Ascot. Here we can see a cluster of fast early paced horses drawn in the centre to far side (so high numbers). Though over a 7 furlong trip on ground with a bit of cut in it this will take some getting, so looking for horses that will get the trip is key. On the basis of the pace bias and therefore the possibility of racing with the right group, St Moritz looks very interesting, as does Suruor. Wannabe King on the stands side is the only horse that shows some pace there, so is likely to be going slower than the far side group. However, if the winner is to come from that side, then Acrostic, drawn next to him in stall 3 and with a high recent speed figure, may be best placed.