Leaders and Laggers for Wolves
By colin on Friday, March 11th, 2011Now up for tomorrow in the betwise members’ area.
Black Coffee makes 4 wins out of 5 races today for Smart Markets
By colin on Monday, January 10th, 2011Smart Markets, our selection service based on analysis of betting markets, scored with 4 out of 5 races today. The full table, as seen by subscribers, is reprinted below. All minimum prices were available at 1 pm, when we post selections each day.
| Date | Course | Time | Name | Min Price* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-01-10 | Taunton | 14:15:00 | Shakalakaboomboom | 2.6 |
| 2011-01-10 | Towcester | 14:25:00 | Bottman | 6.2 |
| 2011-01-10 | Wolverhampton | 15:35:00 | Midnight Strider | 2.5 |
| 2011-01-10 | Towcester | 15:55:00 | Call It On | 7.4 |
| 2011-01-10 | Towcester | 15:55:00 | Niceonefrankie | 6.2 |
| 2011-01-10 | Wolverhampton | 17:05:00 | Black Coffee | 6.2 |
Welsh National Thoughts
By colin on Saturday, January 8th, 2011Thoughts on the rescheduled Welsh National at Chepstow today:
1. Fiendishly tricky.
2. If playing, use minimal stakes.
3. Anything winning this will have to have stamina in buckets. Looking down the list of contenders, there are a number of doubts about stamina.
4. Trainer form may be important – lots of recent interruptions in the racing schedule and poor conditions at home mean we want a trainer who has proven that they are currently preparing their horses better than others.
Conclusion:
Arbor Supreme fits the bill as a horse that has won over the extreme distance and is from a yard in great form. At 16/1 + he also represents enough value to warrant a small play to each way stakes.
Leaders and laggers for Lingfield tomorrow
By colin on Friday, January 7th, 2011The Betwise guide to pace in the race is now up for free access in the Betwise members’ area.
Navan feature race
By colin on Saturday, December 18th, 2010Luckily one jumps fixture survives today, albeit on the other side of the Irish sea.
A quick check in Smartform:
>select scheduled_time, course, penalty_value from daily_races where meeting_date=CURDATE() order by penalty_value
Shows us that the 13:15 at Navan is the most valuable race of the day. A grade 1 novice hurdle, full of promising types (we wouldn’t expect much else in a Grade 1 novice race). As such, taking a short price is a risk, unless we are convinced that that the favourite(s) are clear in ability from the rest of the field. I’m not convinced at this stage, so prefer a horse that has shown the ability to win this at a longer price.
Oscars Well at 8/1 fits the bill nicely, having shown progressive form and clocking a useful speed figure last time out. I’d be surprised if Oscars Well wasn’t in contention at the end of the race (though again it’s a novice hurdle, so caveat emptor), meaning there may well be an opportunity to lay off on the exchanges, to leave a win bet to nothing (or even a small profit) before the race has ended…
Pace for Lingfield tomorrow
By colin on Friday, December 17th, 2010Leader and lagger statistics for Lingfield sprints (classified as sub one mile races) tomorrow – 4 races in all – are now up for free access in the Betwise members’ area.
Tingle Creek today
By colin on Saturday, December 11th, 2010Something to live up to with this Saturday’s feature race analysis with a high success rate for identifying the winner in the past few Saturdays, including 2 winning at double digit prices. Today’s feature race is of course the Tingle Creek, bizzarely run at Cheltenham.
The chances of Master Minded are obvious, but with him still to prove he is really back to his best, he is a poor betting proposition at 10/11.
However, as such a short favourite in a 9 runner field, he sets up the shape of the race from a betting point of view for a range of possible each way shots. Gavain, Kalahari King and Somersby are all form choices you’d expect to have a good chance of running into a place, but again at the prices, we’ll only recover our stake if Master Minded is indeed back to his best. Moreover, with only 3 places and 4 horses named so far (and 5 other horses in the race not yet considered), there’s a strong chance picking one of them will lose both parts of the stake.
So, from a betting point of view, we’re going to take a chance to small stakes each way with a longer priced shot from a yard that knows how to win top class chases. I’m So Lucky showed lots of potential before its break, and may improve enough to make the frame. It’s all about risk and reward, and for this race small risk is advised with 25/1 representing a reasonable reward.
Saturday All Weather pace statistics
By colin on Friday, December 10th, 2010Pace statistics for all sprints at Southwell, Wolverhampton and Lingfield tomorrow are now up in “Saturday Front Runners” in the Betwise members area – free to sign up. Draw info., forecast prices and lagging statistics also included.
Today’s feature race according to Smartform
By colin on Saturday, December 4th, 2010In case anyone hadn’t noticed, the weather has disrupted the racing schedule and all the feature races we might have been assessing today on National Hunt cards at Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby have fallen victim to the Big Freeze.
In the circumstances, UK racing has done well to stage 3 meetings today (with one in Ireland at Dundalk), but it’s all low level All Weather stuff. Is there a feature race among this lot? Not really, but we can use the Smartform database to rank prize money from all the races and see at least which is the most valuable.
A simple query as follows (taking under a second to run) shows us all the races scheduled to go ahead today, together with their prize money
>select scheduled_time, course, penalty_value from daily_races where meeting_date=CURDATE();
There are 29 in total. If we want to see the top 3, ordered by their value, from the highest to the lowest, we can extend our query as follows.
>select scheduled_time, course, penalty_value from daily_races where meeting_date=CURDATE() order by penalty_value DESC limit 3;
What are they?
So, the 2.55 at Southwell has become our feature race. Wow, the weather really is bad!
What will win? A different question. A race I’d prefer to swerve, though an interesting exchange play – from a back-before-the-race to a lay-in-running perspective – is Cape Vale, who, according to our Leader and Lagger statistics, should set the pace.
Is Denman opposable today?
By colin on Saturday, November 27th, 2010Everyone loves a superstar chaser and Denman is no exception.
I’m sure every racing enthusiast would love to see Denman come back off a long break and put up another awesome weight-carrying performance in the top class handicap that is the Hennessy.
But look at this:
– His form figures read: 2F/1U24- Ok, the penultimate “2” was the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but it’s doubtful Denman is improving at the age of 10 – and he has failed to complete in 2 out of the last 6 of his starts.
– Question: How many 10 year olds or older horses have won the Hennessy in the last 50 years?
– Answer: 3.
Big weight carrying performances in the Hennessy have a rather more encouraging record. 11 horses have carried 11 stone 10 or more to victory, including Denman, twice(!) in the last 3 years. A feat comparable with, if not equal to, the legendary Arkle. But Arkle was 7 when he won the first of his back to back Hennessy victories in 1964. And even Arkle failed to win a third – plus he was a younger horse with an impeccable recent record (having won his third Gold Cup in the same year) when he tried.
In many ways, it’s hard to see why Denman is such a short-priced favourite for the race. Of course, his formidable trainer would not be competing him unless he thought he had a great chance of winning – but he also has 4 others in the race!
So – it’s probably fair to say that whilst a horse of Denman’s class should not be underestimated, and we would all like to see a winning superstar, today he’s not the best betting proposition.
Is there a betting play in the race? With many of the other 17 contenders unexposed at this level, it’s hard to single one out.
Ironically, Denman may be the most solid bet on the exchanges – but not backing him (or laying him) before the race.
Instead, provided he doesn’t have one of his notorious recent “off-days”, his class should see him thereabouts towards the end of the race. If he is going well coming to the final turn at Newbury, laying him at an even shorter price in-running may be the most interesting betting proposition – especially if one of the other contenders that are carrying 2 stone less are also going well…