3 races so far, 1 winner and 2 longer shots that were unplaced.

Today, it’s the Norfolk, and our second best race after the Coventry as far as the record of favourites is concerned.  So it pays to look at the top of the market, generally.

But we’re not going with the favourite per se – Pyman’s Theory is the choice, today.

1 winner from 2 yesterday, and one race only today – the Queen Mary.

The Queen Mary has the potential to throw up the odd outsider though generally horses at the head of the market fare best.

While Shumoos has an obvious chance this year, we think there may be better value elsewhere and are going to plump for Mark Johnston’s Vocational on a number of trend grounds.  First off, trainers who have done well in Royal Ascot 2 year old races in the past tend to do well, and Johnston has a good record.  Indeed, in the last 8 years he has only had 2 runners in this very race, with a win and a fourth for his efforts.  Fillies with a pre-March foaling date tend to do better, and whilst most fillies had won last time out, Vocational had plenty to excuse her last time out second.  At 18/1, she’s the each way play to small stakes.

Leaders and laggers, reflecting horses most likely to make the pace, and those most likely to start slowly at all races up to a mile, will be up a day in advance for the rest of Royal Ascot (and all other meetings occurring through the festival) at the following URL:

http://www.betwise.co.uk/leaders_and_laggers.txt

As per this month’s article in Racing Ahead, we’re following up on the general trends for Royal Ascot 2 year old races by highlighting the contenders that seem to fit from this year’s renewals.   Today, the Coventry Stakes and Windsor Castle.

In our analysis, the most compelling trend for the Coventry Stakes (4.25) was how well market favourites tend to perform.  That, coupled with being unbeaten and/or winning their last race.   It’s also a race for trainers who’ve already proved themselves at Royal Ascot.

Our two obvious contenders are therefore Mezmaaar and Power, currently vying for favouritism.  Power, trained by O’Brien,  is currently second favourite (as of 7 am) but we think this may flip by the time of the race.   He’s the trend selection.

The Windsor Castle (5.35)  has typically held some hope for outsiders and even trainers who have not previously had a Royal Ascot 2 year old winner.   Still, with 27 horses to choose from this represents no easy task…

Huma Bird, at 20-1, is the speculative selection, with Gentlemans Code nearer the front of the market, also feared.

(Sorry, it’s not the Epsom Derby, it’s still The Derby here at Betwise.)

It would be great to see Carlton House win for the story and the spectacle, but from a betting point of view, he looks far too short and takes lumps out of the book.  Nick Mordin and others have knocked the time and the form of the Dante this year, which may be one of the best historical trials, but was run this year in a slow time.

With the first and second favourite being trained by Stoute and O’Brien respectively, there is also distinct hyped feeling to the betting.  Time will tell, but this doesn’t look like a 2 horse race, despite the fact that one of these two winning is represented as a greater than 50% chance.

So this year’s Derby has the right ‘shape’ for a bet, with a number of other contenders looking great value.

But which one? Read more…

Early season 2 year old races can be notoriously difficult.  With no form, what is there to go on?

For the horse – breeding (sire, dam_sire), precocity

For the connections – recent trainer form, trainer specialism, trainer and jockey trends

Smartform can give you an edge in all these areas.

Looking at precocity alone, foaling dates are a highly useful pointer at this stage of the season.  In less than a second with Smartform we can find all 2 year old races on any given day and rank them all according to their birthday.

Here are the top third of the field ranked from this query in each race today (in order of birthday):

Haydock 2.30:  Lexi’s Prince, Egyptian Cross, Banksy, Fiction or Fact

Ascot 4.00:  Bayleyf, North Star Boy, Charles The Great

Warwick 6.15:  Choice Of Remark, Manderston

At this stage of the season, all the above have a distinct edge in age over their contemporaries and should go very well.

In last October’s newsletter, in the aftermath of Frankel’s Dewhurst victory, we discussed how and when betting at odds-on could be value.

A blog post before the Dewhurst also suggested Frankel was value at odds-on for that race.

Likewise, it’s hard to look anywhere else in today’s 2000 Guineas.  Most pundits will say that the race is not interesting for betting purposes, but they can’t see anything beating Frankel.  How can those statements be reconciled?  If nothing will beat Frankel, then surely he is value?

Of course, horseracing is never that simple.  Anything can happen.  Many punters, myself included, like to see a price above odds-on on any horse, purely as insurance against random acts of god that occur in racing from time to time.

But neither does simply asking for odds against accurately quantify how much insurance is needed before a bet is value.  The stats show, as per the newsletter article, that betting at odds-on can be profitable, even with a few simple rules applied about race types and field sizes.  How much more profitable can it be when we consider the individual horse in question and the race itself?

In the case of Frankel, we can quickly run out of superlatives about his performances to date.   There is an element of tension in the build up to the race – Frankel pulls so strongly early on, there is a worry about settling him, and as he is drawn widest on the track, there will not be immediate cover in the early part of the race.

Personally, I think Frankel is such a superior colt it would be interesting to see him get his lead early and win his races from the front.  Instead, in most of his races he’s shown he’s faster than everything else early on and has to be heavily restrained.

Then there’s the opposition.  Most are unexposed as 3 year olds.  It’s also a classic mistake (no pun intended) to overemphasise the quality of 2 year old form for 3 year old classic horses – the leap in development between 2 and 3 years is so great that horses can frequently reverse form with each other as one develops more or less.

But the Greenham proved Frankel is no back number.  He ran it just like his 2 year old races.  No doubt the performance of one of the other contenders today will surprise, but it’s still impossible to look further than Frankel for the winner.

If we had to name one to chase home, it would be Casamento, though it’s not very encouraging that Frankie Dettori says “Frankel can’t be beaten”.  Maybe some small stakes each way money, or the forecast with Frankel is interesting.

It’s not much fun betting at odds-on, and this race doesn’t need a bet in order to be compelling.  It would also be mad to risk much with the rewards being so paltry to the stake.  Having said that, I think at approximately 2/1 on it’s a bit like buying some extra Saturday beer money – so why not?

Today was a clean sweep of winners for the selected market movers spotted every day by Smart Markets:

Leaders and laggers now up in the Betwise members’ area for both all-weather meetings tomorrow, including the Winter Derby meeting.