The Derby
By colin on Saturday, June 4th, 2011(Sorry, it’s not the Epsom Derby, it’s still The Derby here at Betwise.)
It would be great to see Carlton House win for the story and the spectacle, but from a betting point of view, he looks far too short and takes lumps out of the book. Nick Mordin and others have knocked the time and the form of the Dante this year, which may be one of the best historical trials, but was run this year in a slow time.
With the first and second favourite being trained by Stoute and O’Brien respectively, there is also distinct hyped feeling to the betting. Time will tell, but this doesn’t look like a 2 horse race, despite the fact that one of these two winning is represented as a greater than 50% chance.
So this year’s Derby has the right ‘shape’ for a bet, with a number of other contenders looking great value.
But which one?
There is generally much talk of the importance of pedigree in the Derby, since so few horses are actually tried over a testing pace for 12 furlongs prior to the big event. The dosage index created by Steve Roman is widely cited as a useful measure of a horse’s ability to stay considering its pedigree.
This therefore makes for interesting reading
Using Smartform, we’ve also ranked all the sires of this years’ contenders in terms of strike rate of their progeny over the Derby trip, going and age bracket.
The top two on the Smartform rankings are Native Khan and Seville. At a much bigger price, Vadamar also gets a surprisingly high rating.
Carlton House’s sire, Street Cry, actually scores very low on our sire strike rate metrics. On the other hand, the Chef de Race commentary from Steve Miller suggests he has an ideal dosage score for a Derby winner, so whilst we’re loath to say he has no chance, deferring to the breeding experts somewhat, it’s still a negative for us.
In conclusion, bearing in mind preparation, stable confidence and performance in their races to date, we’re happy to stick with Native Khan as an each way contender, with a small interest on the unexposed long shot Vadamar.