South Africa v India latest score
By BBC Sport | Sport Homepage | World Edition on Tuesday, July 13th, 2010South Africa take on India in Durban in their Twenty20 match.
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Why stall 1 wins at Chester – even when it’s stall 9
By colin on Sunday, July 11th, 2010Yesterday’s City Wall Stakes was a fascinating race to watch from many perspectives, and well worth a second look for as long as the video link here holds good. We wrote beforehand about the draw statistics at Chester, which were completely against the eventual winner, Blue Jack, drawn in stall 9. Our favoured runners were drawn 1 and 2, with Glamorous Spirit, in stall 2, the best previous front runner in the race and therefore predicted to lead early.
The prediction was right – Glamorous Spirit set off at a furious pace and quickly led towards the inside rail. However, the pace was indeed furious. Glamorous Spirit must be one of the fastest breaking horses in training. She was also our front-running prediction in the Epsom Dash a few weeks back, when drawn on the unfavoured inside rail there – indeed she did break best, but her poor draw meant her race was quickly over.
In the context of yesterday’s race at Chester, she effectively burned herself out early on, and faded to be last – though even with this explanation, her run was still some way below her best form. (She may be seen to better effect on a straighter track where her early speed will not be blunted, as when winning a valuable race at the Curragh prior to yesterday’s outing – though the trainer seems to think otherwise.)
However, from the perspective of the Chester draw, Blue Jack, the winner, provides us with the most interesting run from this race. There’s no better use for the cliche “the exception that proves the rule” than his run. Blue Jack broke slowly, as indeed our lagger statistics over at the Betwise Members’ area (available until next Saturday) also correctly predicted. Blue Jack was given over a 50% chance of starting the slowest in the race before it began. As the commentator noted, Blue Jack was indeed slowest out of the stalls and “lost a few lengths at the start” – at least in relation to the rest of the field being carted along by Glamorous Spirit. However, Blue Jack’s jockey, Richard Kingscote, used that negative to good advantage and rode a very shrewd race, dropping her in behind the field early and hugging the inside rail position around the Roodee’s tight bends. It’s this position that produces the strong bias to stall 1, with any runner that sticks to the inside rail covering far less ground than those racing wide. The fact that R Kingscote managed to obtain it from stall 9 was a nice bonus. With the pace at which the leaders set off, he was able to let Blue Jack gain momentum in his own time – but the crucial point is that this was done on the inside rail. So “stall 1” wins at Chester, even when it’s stall 9…
Today’s Chester draw bias for each runner
By colin on Saturday, July 10th, 2010Chester, our favourite course for demonstrating the effect of the draw, plays host to a nice listed contest over 5 furlongs today in the 3.20.
Some very nice sprinters on display here, but how well will they be able to show their ability? At Chester, more than anywhere else, the inside rail is always the place to be. We’ve written about this well known bias on a number of other occasions, especially in terms of spotting front runners whose superior early speed can get them to the inside rail spot early.
In Racing Ahead this month, we go further by quantifing the draw effect in general, to give punters a handle on exactly what advantage there is. Combined with front runner ratings over at the Betwise members’ area, the draw often presents the best chance of understanding what will influence the race outcome most over the minimum distance – outside a horse’s natural ability and form.
However, the picture is not “one size fits all” – field size makes a difference. So let’s have a look at the bias by stall, tailored for the field at Chester today using our Smartform draw model:
Whilst stall 1 (against the inside rail) comes out best over field sizes of 10, the advantage is not as pronounced as in larger fields, and, ability aside, does not reflect the current price differential between Borderlescott and Glamorous Spirit, drawn just to its outside. Now, which of the two has a better chance of breaking early? Head over to the Betwise Members’ area and find out.
Draw analysis at Sandown today
By colin on Saturday, July 3rd, 2010As per last Saturday’s post we shift our attention in July to assessing the effect of the draw in upcoming races. To do this we are using an automated model created with Smartform, applying the principles laid out in the Betwise article in this month’s Racing Ahead.
Focus today is on the first race at Sandown, which requires analysis of the 5 furlong straight course in the middle of the track. As with front runners, draw bias tends to show up in results most strongly at races under a mile. Although there are notable exceptions to this rule (as with the case of the Ebor draw bias over 1 mile 6 furlongs at York), it usually pays to concentrate on sprint distances.
Sandown exposes a weakness in some draw analysis you can find, which is to concentrate on strike rate per stall, without factoring in stall positions. You can read a lot more about this in our article, but sticking with the case of Sandown, as any regular Sandown racegoer knows, the stalls are usually positioned with the highest number against the far rail and represent a position – though not necessarily a stall! – that has held a continuing advantage over the years. The actual stall number drawn against the far rail varies according to the size of the field, making strike rate per stall statistics more or less redundant. The way to overcome this is to use historic data to map the advantage of the position on the track which each stall occupied (though even here, there are always problems presented by rail movements).
Our Smartform model above maps the previous advantage of each course position onto all today’s stall numbers, as if you are looking overhead at the race about to start – stall 7 is drawn against the far rail. The height of the bar represents stall advantage, with anything over 1 indicating higher than expected winners and under 1 a negative expectation. (Stall 5 should be empty today due to the withdrawal of Wi Dud – draw 4 may be shifted one up as a result).
What conclusions to draw from this? Though we can see immediately that the draw advantage in small fields does not exclude the possibility of any runner winning, there is a distinct negative from being drawn in stalls 1, 2 and 3. Combined with front runner analysis, we can also see which, if any, of these contenders are able to break early to secure a better position (front runner analysis for this race is posted in the Betwise Members’ area and freely available). Going back to the commonly held belief that the highest stall is the place to be at Sandown, we can see that whilst this is born out by our Smartform model, it is very marginal for small fields, and there is, for example, almost as big an advantage being drawn in stall 4 today. So is Bould Mover, in stall 4, better value than Triple Aspect, the hot favourite drawn on the far rail in stall 7? Does Reignier, in stall 3, represent value at 14/1, given that stall 3 still produces a reasonable number of winners in small fields? Of course, answering these questions relies on far more than knowing the runners’ stall position – we need to know more about the ability of the horses concerned, but at least we can now put the effect of the draw in its place.
From front runners to the draw – Chester races today
By colin on Saturday, June 26th, 2010Today is the last of our series of Saturday posts looking at probable front runners using the Smartform model that we outlined in this month’s edition of Racing Ahead. Not to say that we won’t be looking at front runners again, but not in every post 😉 Selected front runner ratings will also start appearing in the Betwise Members’ area (for free) from next Saturday – this analysis has predicted a few good winners as well as front runners in each of the past 5 Saturdays.
Our upcoming July article in Racing Ahead looks at using Smartform to calculate the effects of the draw at every track. In fact, as we have discussed before, an advantageous draw combined with a front running style is a powerful winning combination, nowhere moreso than Chester, one of today’s meetings.
Not that we need a sophisticated model to assess the effects of the draw at Chester – low is best, period. In sprint races with larger fields, the advantage is even more pronounced, since many of the runners are forced to race wide.
At Chester today there are 3 races under a mile, 2 sprints at 5 furlongs and one at the awkward “sprint” distance of 7 furlongs. The first two races have smaller field sizes, so it’s possible that the plum running positions on the inside rail may be more easily occupied by horses that are not drawn lowest. Where there are smaller field sizes, it always raises an interesting question of how much importance we should attach to the draw versus running style in terms of predicting leaders. The last race is 10 runners over the minimum distance – typically horses drawn 1 and 2 (today this is Ryan Style and Hoh Hoh Hoh) in such races can carry all before them – even though these do not come in our top 3 predicted front runners judged on pure running style alone. For all today’s races, you can be the judge – below are the front runner ratings coupled with the draw position of every horse for each of the sprint races at Chester:
RACE: 2010-06-26, Chester, 14:05:00, 1116 Yds
HORSE, % LEADING CHANCE, DRAW, SMARTFORM FORECAST SP:
Lord Avon, 0.31, 5, 7/2
Coconut Ice, 0.21, 7, 7/1
Fred Willetts, 0.21, 4, 10/1
Scarlet Rocks, 0.14, 9, 11/4
Triple Agent, 0.14, 6, 25/1
Lexi’s Hero, 0.00, 3, 7/1
Leiba Leiba, 0.00, 2, 8/1
The Thrill Is Gone, 0.00, 1, 5/1
RACE: 2010-06-26, Chester, 15:45:00, 1542 Yds
HORSE, % LEADING CHANCE, DRAW, SMARTFORM FORECAST SP:
Rule Breaker, 0.41, 1, 7/2
Cansili Star, 0.23, 2, 11/8
Below Zero, 0.17, 7, 12/1
William Morgan, 0.15, 4, 10/1
Tiradito, 0.04, 6, 14/1
Layla’s Hero, 0.00, 5, 6/1
Hunting Tartan, 0.00, 3, 7/1
RACE: 2010-06-26, Chester, 16:20:00, 1116 Yds
HORSE, % LEADING CHANCE, DRAW, SMARTFORM FORECAST SP:
Falasteen, 0.32, 7, 8/1
Bertoliver, 0.23, 4, 5/2
Lost In Paris, 0.17, 9, 4/1
Hoh Hoh Hoh, 0.11, 2, 16/1
Ryan Style, 0.08, 1, 6/1
Grissom, 0.04, 10, 14/1
Lucky Dan, 0.03, 8, 6/1
Memphis Man, 0.01, 5, 10/1
Green Park, 0.01, 3, 14/1
Dancing Red Devil, 0.00, 6, 25/1
Making the running in the Golden Jubilee and the Wokingham
By colin on Saturday, June 19th, 2010Today’s big sprint races at Ascot over 6 furlongs present an interesting challenge for our Smartform front runner ratings.
The first thing to notice about both races is the enormous field size, with 24 runners in the Golden Jubilee due off at 3.50, and 27 runners in the Wokingham, due off at 4.25. When there are so many runners lined up across the track, not only can sprint races look like a cavalry charge, but the chances of successfully predicting the relative behaviour of any one contender is of course less. Fortunately, the prices on offer are that much bigger, too.
Despite the highly competitive nature of the race, the Golden Jubilee throws up quite some discrepancy between front running attributes. In such a big field, we would expect the variation between the top ranked contenders to be marginal, but this is not the case. Here are the rankings for the top 3 – showing the relative percentage chance of each leading in the first half of the race, followed by its draw.
Sayif, 0.30, 6
War Artist, 0.16, 23
Showcasing, 0.11, 7
So, Sayif is almost twice as likely to lead as the nearest contender. However, it’s not so straightforward with these rankings, since both Sayif and Showcasing are also horses that exhibit some lagging tendencies in some of their previous races, earning them a high score on both fronts (the lagging percentages are not shown here). War Artist does not score any lagging points, but falls some way behind the raw score of Sayif.
With Sayif drawn towards the stands rail, and War Artist drawn on the far rail, they would be the two picks, with the stands rail pick slightly favoured, also at a bigger price of 48.0 on Betfair at the time of writing. With a good chance that Sayif will race prominently (and even if he does not, he is a quality colt with a winning chance), a price of 48.0 in a liquid market presents definite back to lay possibilities.
On to the Wokingham at 4.25, there is less disparity between the leading contenders in terms of ratings – here is how they fall:
Masamah, 0.10, 7
Edge Closer, 0.08, 1
Evens And Odds, 0.07, 16
Masamah is passed over in terms of converting an early lead to a winning advantage, since it has shown most promise to date over 5 furlongs. However, we think it is likely to race prominently and will show well towards the stands rail for the first few furlongs, so may show some odds reduction in running from its current price of 85.0. The other two contenders are preferred in terms of horses that may race prominently and convert that edge into a winning chance. Edge Closer’s chance is probably reflected in its odds of 23.0 for the time being, but Evens and Odds, ridden by William Buick, who guided last week’s front running pick, Burning Thread, to win the front in the big sprint at Sandown, is an interesting contender who may race prominently at a big price, currently at 44.0 on Betfair.
Who will make the running in the big sprint at Sandown?
By colin on Saturday, June 12th, 2010Today’s front runner analysis using our Smartform model focuses on the richest race on the card at Sandown – the listed Scurry Stakes over 5 furlongs, due off at 3.30 and worth over 22K to the winner alone.
Without further ado, here are the results of today’s leader analysis for this race (percentage ranked chance of leading early, followed by stall positions):
Burning Thread, 0.27, 9
Above Limits, 0.21, 2
Red Avalanche, 0.16, 6
Duchess Dora, 0.12, 3
Reignier, 0.12, 1
Lady Brickhouse, 0.06, 5
Tawaabb, 0.06, 8
Duplicity, 0.00, 7
Diamond Johnny G, 0.00, 4
The usual caveats apply to the raw numbers – there is no measure of ability, suitability to conditions, or any individual measure of form (other than analysis of the previous running style of each contender) used in the production of the ratings.
Another caveat is that today’s race includes runners with little historic form, being limited to 3 year old competitors. This last observation applies especially to our top ranked leading contender – Burning Thread. He’s had only 3 runs in total and was slowly away on the first of them, meaning he also scores as a potential lagger. However, we’re prepared to forgive his debut run last year, since his last 2 outings show him to be a useful, pacey sort.
As we look at the next factor of interest from a pace perspective – the draw – another positive for Burning Thread emerges, in that he is drawn in stall 9 (of 9). Traditionally the draw at Sandown on the 5 furlong track in the middle of the course favours those drawn against the far running rail. Relying on a so-called “known” draw bias can be suspect (unless the reason such bias is hard to counter as at our favoured example of the inside rail at Chester) especially as clerks of the course may seek to mitigate such advantage on straight courses through watering policies and the like. In such cases it pays to look at recent evidence in the draw, something we’ll be focusing on as a topic in its own right over the coming months. For the case in hand at Sandown today, we will assume that the rail draw is no negative, and may well provide extra assistance, despite the field size being relatively small.
Let’s say Burning Thread takes a prominent racing position from the rail draw – is he good enough to win? That is more doubtful. His ability ratings are not the best in the field, and in this class he may face stiff competition in the closing stages. If the favourite, Duchess Dora, is close up (as befits her running style), he will be in danger. There may be a back to lay opportunity, as his price currently stands at 5.3 on Betfair (as of the time of writing, at 9 am), which should be shorter if he is a genuine contender within the final furlong. At a much bigger price, 12.0, Red Avalanche is also interesting in stall 6 – but we have to take on trust his comparative ability as a 3 yr old since he has been off the track for 245 days. Whilst he also raced keenly as a juvenile, we cannot really predict what his running style may be without more recent evidence. All in all, this a tricky affair with so many unknowns to factor – but, of course, that’s one of the things that makes racing fun.
Derby Day Front Runners
By colin on Saturday, June 5th, 2010With the most interesting race of the day, the Epsom Derby, set to go off at 4 pm, we turn out attention to front runner analysis in a couple of the earlier sprints being run before the big race. This continues June’s Saturday analysis theme using our Smartform model as outlined in this month’s Racing Ahead article and previous posts.
First up, the Epsom 2.10. Not much evidence to go on, since this is listed race for 2 year olds, most of whom have raced only once or twice. As a race type it ranks amongst the most unreliable for the ratings. Two reasons for this – firstly, a higher class, non-handicap race means a potentially wide ability gulf between the runners rendering our predictions based on previous races redundant. Second, each runner has had little chance to establish a real profile. However, from the evidence we have seen, there may be an angle in the ratings. Here are the top two (percentage leader prediction, followed by draw):
Dubawi Gold, 0.24, 8
Where’s Romeo, 0.24, 2
A tie for top ranked front runner does not look too promising, but the third rated, Singapore Lilly, rates only 12% likely to lead and likelier to start slowly, leaving Premier Clarets rated fourth, also at 12%. So as a starting point, we can say there is stronger than 50% chance that Dubawi Gold and Where’s Romeo will break and try to lead early. Of the two, Where’s Romeo has raced twice over the minimum trip and led, whereas Dubawi Gold has raced once over 6 furlongs and led – so, Where’s Romeo’s early speed may be stronger. Also, Where’s Romeo is drawn towards the inside rail, which is generally an advantage over 6 furlongs at Epsom. Last but not least, there is better price margin in Where’s Romeo’s price for an in-running play. Currently available at 8.2 on Betfair, we’d expect it to trade much lower if has been leading after the first few furlongs. Too many form and ability unknowns to try and call the winner, however.
Next up, the top two from the Musselburgh 2.35. All the caveats on race type mentioned above apply, since it is also a 2 year old race with little previous form to go on.
Excel Bolt, 0.43, 4
Misty Morn, 0.22, 7
The ratings speak for themselves on this one, we should not look outside these two in order to try and predict the front runner. However, Misty Morn has a rag’s chance and is rated just as likely to start slowly. Excel Bolt has one run to his name and is also the favourite for the race. Not much margin for an in-running play, with the price already at 2.12 on Betfair. However, if Excel Bolt breaks from the front over 5 furlongs at Musselburgh, he will take all the beating.
Last but not least, we should say a word about the most valuable sprint of the day, the so-called Dash or Epsom 3.15. Here are the top two:
Le Toreador, 0.11, 3
Glamorous Spirit, 0.11, 1
We’ve left this to last, because these ratings are not the strongest. Basically the field is full of high class sprinters, most of whom are capable of breaking well. However, there are some nice prices on our top two, so whilst it could not be a strong fancy, Glamorous Spirit also has a hitherto spotless lagger record, and is therefore worthy of further consideration at 38.0 at the time of writing.
Bank Holiday Front Runner analysis
By colin on Monday, May 31st, 2010Saturday’s front running analysis went as expected, with the top prediction Masta Plasta breaking early and making most of the running from the front. He finished second, but traded solidly at lower prices (as low as 2.3, having been available at 6.0+ before the off) in running on Betfair.
Today we will look at a couple of the top ratings for two of today’s earlier sprints, the opener at Goodwood over 5 furlongs and the 6 furlong 2.40 at Leicester. These races were chosen because they are sprints where our probability rating for the horse leading from the front exceeds 40%.
Goodwood 2.00, 5f:
Crazy In Love, 0.43, 4
Mini Bon Bon, 0.29, 7
Leicester 2.40, 6f:
London Gold, 0.46, 4
Dancing Freddy, 0.16, 5
As before, the numbers after each horse represent an estimation of its percentage chance (where the chances of all runners add to 100%) of leading from the front today, followed by the horse’s draw today. All of the caveats and other angles to consider from Saturday’s post still apply; in other words, this is a useful starting point for considering the shape of a sprint race, but other metrics are of course needed.
In terms of considering a solid back to lay proposition, we want to see some other credentials that suggest a likely front runner will be in contention for some way in the race (as well as at the start). On that basis we are not so crazy about Crazy in Love (we would have preferred Mini Bon Bon, but this has now been declared a non-runner) in the first at Goodwood. There is good price margin for Crazy in Love’s price to reduce from the 9.2 currently available if she leads from the front, but with few runs on which to base our prediction about each runner, and lack of confidence about this horse’s ability, the right course of action is to swerve the race.
The top rated front running candidate London Gold in the 2.40 at Leicester is more interesting, but (unfortunately) seems to be well fancied by connections and feared by bookmakers already. Tissue prices for today’s race had London Gold rated at a 9/2 + chance (the Racing Post site shows 9/2, the Sporting Life 8/1), but it is currently available at a general 7/2 only. This price doesn’t leave much margin for odds reduction in early running, so it is passed over from a back to lay point of view. However, its potential win chances in the race, especially if it races prominently throughout as we expect, merit further inspection, since there is no reason to suppose it cannot win if it is still in contention in the final furlong.
Front Runner analysis: 4.15 Beverley today
By colin on Saturday, May 29th, 2010As promised in this month’s Racing Ahead article, Betwise are previewing different races here every week to shortlist each contender’s probability of being the front runner in the race.
The first question a good cynic should ask is: What’s the point of trying to predict front runners? Here are a few reasons:
All our front runner rankings are produced automatically, using the Smartform Database, looking into every runners’ previous history and assessing their running styles against each other for the race in question. We’ve found that the method has the best record of success in smaller fields over sprint distances – so we’re picking out the 4.15 at Beverley as today’s race.
Below are the list of likely slowly starters (LAGGERS), followed by the list of faster starters (LEADERS) that we would expect to front run today. The first figure after the horse’s name shows the chance that we think that runner has of leading (or being a lagger) today; the figure after the horse’s name indicates its stall position today. So, for the list below, we think that Fullanby and Fitz Flyer each have an approx. 30% chance of starting slowest today, and we think it is 46% likely that Masta Plasta will be prominent and/or lead from the start.
LAGGERS:
Fullandby, 0.31, 4
Fitz Flyer, 0.27, 3
Look Busy, 0.20, 1
Kaldoun Kingdom, 0.17, 6
Tombi, 0.06, 2
Masta Plasta, 0.00, 5
LEADERS:
Masta Plasta, 0.46, 5
Tombi, 0.28, 2
Look Busy, 0.21, 1
Fullandby, 0.05, 4
Kaldoun Kingdom, 0.00, 6
Fitz Flyer, 0.00, 3
As with using any tool for race analysis, the analysis does not stop on one rating, and it’s important to interpret these figures in the context of today’s race. Concentrating purely on who will front run for a second, we also note that our second ranked front runner, Tombi, is wearing first time cheekpieces, which it’s possible may bring about earlier speed.
On the race itself, it’s a decent quality race, as we can tell from the Class (2) and prize money on offer, so running styles alone are unlikely to tell us which horse will win (in a lower class race where all horses are exposed, stealing a lead on an average field can be a bigger advantage). On this score, Masta Plasta is well rated, but has less potential for improvement than the rest of these, at age 7. Plus, he has not won since 2008. Furthermore, a 46% chance of being the front runner, still means a 54% chance against. Even so, he’s our likeliest contender, some way ahead of the rest, and very unlikely to start slowly. Tehrefore, at 6.0 + he is worth considering as a back to lay bet (but not on this evidence alone to win) since he should be well in contention until the closing stages of the race.
Lots more work can be done on the analysis of this or any other race using these ratings – bringing into play speed figures and relative ability for example. One of the nice features of Betwise’s leader/lagger ratings is that you can use and interpret them as you wish as an input for your own analysis, whatever betting angle you are looking at – from laying slow starters, backing to lay front runners, to predicting pace and win strategies.
Tags: Beverley, front runners, in race comments, in-running, laggers, Masta Plasta, Smartform
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