Pace analysis for key sprints today

Last week we picked the winning side for the Ayr Silver and Gold Cup (far side group for Silver and stands side group for Gold) – surely debunking the myth that there was a track or intrinsic “draw” bias to the near side.  Whilst track bias is always possible through iniquitous watering or course conformation, for flat galloping tracks knowing where the strongest pace is often key to knowing which draw position may be advantageous.

All the pace statistics for today’s sprints are online for free perusal in the Betwise Members’ Area.  Reader Alan has also produced a nice visual representation of some of today’s key sprints using the ratings as follows:

Haydock 3.10:  http://i54.tinypic.com/juem9z.jpg
Ascot 3.40:       http://i53.tinypic.com/2aaey4h.jpg
Haydock 3.45:  http://i56.tinypic.com/11kcg7m.jpg

Using early pace as a predictor of where it makes sense to be drawn, we can see that We Have A Dream, Flying Statesman and Waveband, in stalls 12, 14 and 16 create the strongest pace bias towards the stands rail.   Also, the rail is a useful guide for runners at Haydock, than being stuck out in the centre of the course.  It may pay to concentrate on runners drawn 10 and above in this case.

In the 3.45 at haydock, the pace is again in the top half of the draw, but concentrated in the centre, in stalls 8, 10 and 11, with Foxy Music, in the plum rail draw in 17 also having shown early pace before.   Of course, there’s nothing to say that these fast paced horses can’t also make all and win, though on the straight at Haydock and Ascot that is a rarer feat than at turning tracks.

Finally, in a mammoth field of 29 the pace bias may be most informative at Ascot.   Here we can see a cluster of fast early paced horses drawn in the centre to far side (so high numbers).  Though over a 7 furlong trip on ground with a bit of cut in it this will take some getting, so looking for horses that will get the trip is key.  On the basis of the pace bias and therefore the possibility of racing with the right group, St Moritz looks very interesting, as does Suruor.  Wannabe King on the stands side is the only horse that shows some pace there, so is likely to be going slower than the far side group.  However, if the winner is to come from that side, then Acrostic, drawn next to him in stall 3 and with a high recent speed figure, may be best placed.

Tags: Acrostic, Ascot, Haydock, Leaders and laggers, pace, St Moritz

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