Today’s Lambs Navy Rum Handicap at Chester is an inauspicious affair – a class 5 handicap worth £4047 to the winner.

However, it’s of particular interest to us because the race throws up a chance to apply the analysis we’ve been looking at recently with regard to draw and pace in sprint races.

Chester is our favourite example for draw bias, and we’ve done lots of research which shows the continued profitability of backing stalls 1 and 2 blind in larger fields over 5 furlongs.   In fact, it’s a trend you can make an automatic profit with over the long run, since it is usually underbet – though of course the prices that make this true can change in future.

What will not change is the natural advantage handed to horses drawn low.   As we saw earlier in the month at the May festival, an analysis of front runners can also help determine who will get to the rail early and stay there.   Speedy sorts can overcome the natural advantage of stalls 1 and 2 by beating those runners to the rail – as in the case of Masamah who made all to win from stall 3 in a 5 furlong sprint at the May festival – though we won’t bother to look at anything drawn higher than halfway in this 12-runner field, so we discount anything higher than 6.

Betwise use a front runner prediction method derived from in-running comments in the Smartform database, that we will be describing in detail in the June edition of Racing Ahead.   Applying this method to the 2.55 today, our top 6 (in order) for those most likely to break early and lead from the front are:

Of those drawn in the top 6, only Memphis Man (drawn 2) and Radiator Rooney (drawn 6) do not make the cut as previous front runners that rank as likely to lead, though no doubt their jockeys will/ should do everything to encourage them. Red Rosanna and Baby Queen, despite being in our top 6 ranked front runners, will be discounted since they are both drawn higher than 6.  Which leaves us with a shortlist of 4 – Not My Choice, Harry Up, Legal Eagle and Sir Geoffrey in the 12 runner field, before looking at any individual horse’s recent form or ability.

We still think that draw is the most important factor at Chester (meaning we’d be reluctant to go against Not My Choice in stall 1), though the top ranked front running ability of Harry Up may be enough to overcome his poorer draw in stall 5.   At this point in the game it’s time for individual choice and weighing up each horse’s potential to win against its price (at prices of 7.6 and 8.8 for the two horses mentioned, you can make a reasonable argument for value already).   Whatever the individual bettor’s view, discounting over 60% of the field makes that task much easier.