Today’s big sprint races at Ascot over 6 furlongs present an interesting challenge for our Smartform front runner ratings.

The first thing to notice about both races is the enormous field size, with 24 runners in the Golden Jubilee due off at 3.50, and 27 runners in the Wokingham, due off at 4.25.  When there are so many runners lined up across the track, not only can sprint races look like a cavalry charge, but the chances of successfully predicting the relative behaviour of any one contender is of course less.  Fortunately, the prices on offer are that much bigger, too.

Despite the highly competitive nature of the race, the Golden Jubilee throws up quite some discrepancy between front running attributes.  In such a big field, we would expect the variation between the top ranked contenders to be marginal, but this is not the case.  Here are the rankings for the top 3 – showing the relative percentage chance of each leading in the first half of the race, followed by its draw.

Sayif, 0.30, 6
War Artist, 0.16, 23
Showcasing, 0.11, 7

So, Sayif is almost twice as likely to lead as the nearest contender.  However, it’s not so straightforward with these rankings, since both Sayif and Showcasing are also horses that exhibit some lagging tendencies in some of their previous races, earning them a high score on both fronts (the lagging percentages are not shown here).  War Artist does not score any lagging points, but falls some way behind the raw score of Sayif.

With Sayif drawn towards the stands rail, and War Artist drawn on the far rail, they would be the two picks, with the stands rail pick slightly favoured, also at a bigger price of 48.0 on Betfair at the time of writing.  With a good chance that Sayif will race prominently (and even if he does not, he is a quality colt with a winning chance), a price of 48.0 in a liquid market presents definite back to lay possibilities.

On to the Wokingham at 4.25, there is less disparity between the leading contenders in terms of ratings – here is how they fall:

Masamah, 0.10, 7
Edge Closer, 0.08, 1
Evens And Odds, 0.07, 16

Masamah is passed over in terms of converting an early lead to a winning advantage, since it has shown most promise to date over 5 furlongs.  However, we think it is likely to race prominently and will show well towards the stands rail for the first few furlongs, so may show some odds reduction in running from its current price of 85.0.  The other two contenders are preferred in terms of horses that may race prominently and convert that edge into a winning chance.   Edge Closer’s chance is probably reflected in its odds of 23.0 for the time being, but Evens and Odds, ridden by William Buick, who guided last week’s front running pick, Burning Thread, to win the front in the big sprint at Sandown, is an interesting contender who may race prominently at a big price, currently at 44.0 on Betfair.