Having written much about lower grade sprints so far this Flat season, today’s Group 1 Nunthorpe over 5 furlongs later today (3.25, York) is a definite step up in class!

Most pundits favour the top two in the betting, Starspangledbanner and Equiano.  It’s tough to separate their chances on form so far, and at a combined chance of either winning taking out over 50% of the book, it may be wiser to look elsewhere, as well as to consider pace and draw angles, which are often so influential in sprint races at a lower grade.

This week so far at York has seen a bias towards higher drawn runners, racing on the stands rail.   From this point of view, Starspangledbanner is better off than Equiano, in stall 13 as opposed to 3.  But longer priced runners are also drawn high, including the Betwise top rated probable front runner today, Rose Blossom, available at over 20/1 (nb. Equiano is rated second best).  Rose Blossom’s previous acheivements may not be as strong as some of these, but expect her to be right up with the pace, or even setting it, to the finish.  A draw in stall 9 means if she uses her early pace she has a good chance of gaining the stands rail, though this is stronger opposition than she normally faces.

Stone of Folca is another well drawn runner, very interesting from a speed and race conditions angle, in that he is a speedy 2 yr old (has one of the best weight adjusted speed figures in the race) receiving lumps of weight from older horses.  He is also saddled by the previous trainer of Kingsgate Native who won this race with him (also as a 2 yr old receiving lumps of weight) back in 2007.   Last but not least, Bordelescott competes for a third victory in this race and his chances of doing so should not be dismissed.  8 years old is not too old for a sprinter to show top form.

So, 3 outsiders against the field:  Bordelescott at 14/1, Stone of Folca at 12/1 and Rose Blossom at 20/1 – each seem to offer better value from a betting perspective than the two market leaders (taking out a combined c. 20% of the book as opposed to 50%), though the chances of Starspangledbanner from his high draw are feared.