As is often written but often forgotten when it comes to betting, the Derby is a unique test – in particular, the fact that most contenders haven’t yet encountered a fast run 12 furlong distance race or a track that rides anything like Epsom.  In most years there is usually the intriguing question as to whether the 2000 Guineas winner  will also be up to meeting the unique challenges of Epsom.

This year, it’s true that Camelot has better chances than most on breeding, and perhaps he is a worthy favourite.  But he is certainly a short priced one and there is likely to be better value elsewhere.

One of the things in particular that is worth looking out for in a Derby winner is their ability to stay the trip.  The Dosage index is often quoted as the best guide to this, and readers who are looking for the dosage figures on this year’s Derby might find the following link useful:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2012/2012_investec_derby_preview.htm

However, there are other ways of assessing possible stamina, and a method we like to use with Smartform is to look at performance of all a sire’s progeny over the distance in the database.  On this basis, Bonfire’s sire Manduro has sired progeny which have scored well, albeit over a very small sample size, when competing at a distance of 12 furlongs or more.  As Steve Miller writes in his Chef-de-Race column, the Dosage points for Bonfire are also inconclusive since they are so few.  However, as the winner of what has proved one of the most useful trials, together with early indications that his sire is a useful influence for middle distance horses, he is a very interesting contender.

If we add to the above the excellent recent form of the Andrew Balding stable, the fact that the Dante was run in a decent time, and the fact that Bonfire’s price is not suffering from the hype associated with Camelot (as a result of hailing from the all-conquering O’Brien stable coupled with being the 2000 Guineas winner) then we have a worthy contender.

At a price of 9/2 with a quarter of the odds being offered by many bookmakers, he looks a fine each way bet, with the place part surely covering the win stake in order to give “a bet to nothing” for the possibility that Bonfire will beat Camelot and win.

Incidentally, another interesting stamina contender (who comes out second in the Smartform distance statistics for sires) is Mickdaam, at a far bigger price.  Perhaps worth a very small interest (the bit that wins some cash from Bonfire placing), also each way in the hope of getting the favourite beaten.

Of course, advocates of win only betting will argue we are merely doubling our potential losses by backing each way.  It’s an argument that has some validity, but we believe that backing horses like Bonfire in races where their prices are inflated to make each way returns possible (by competing against hyped odds-on shots in small fields where 3 places are offered) does represent long term value, even accepting the downside that any one bet can always go wrong.