No specific Smartform queries for today but we will share some analysis of the 2000 guineas which uses Smartform.

The subject of the analysis is the race of the day, the first classic of the 2012 Flat season for colts over 1 mile at Newmarket, the 2000 Guineas.

The logic behind the analysis is that form is often a difficult measure when it comes to assessing likely improvement in lightly raced colts who are improving dramatically and who are often unraced over the exact conditions of today.

So, given the horses themselves may be showing us less from their form than we would like to see, we can corroborate their credentials for today’s race by looking at the performance of their sire’s other progeny – data which is all available in Sireform. In this case we are looking to 3 factors – the improvement rate in 3 year olds, performance over 1 mile, and performances on soft going.

And the winner is…

Well, the 3 horses that rank highest by taking an average of these measures are:

1. Caspar Netscher
2. Red Duke
3. Hermival

Red Duke’s average is skewed by high scores for improvement and going, but since there is a poor distance score we should exclude it from the list.

That still leaves us with a 25/1 shot and a 20/1 shot.

Preference is for Caspar Netscher, each way or on the spread index which pays out on fourth place.