Who will make the running in the big sprint at Sandown?

Today’s front runner analysis using our Smartform model focuses on the richest race on the card at Sandown – the listed Scurry Stakes over 5 furlongs, due off at 3.30 and worth over 22K to the winner alone.

Without further ado, here are the results of today’s leader analysis for this race (percentage ranked chance of leading early, followed by stall positions):

Burning Thread, 0.27, 9
Above Limits, 0.21, 2
Red Avalanche, 0.16, 6
Duchess Dora, 0.12, 3
Reignier, 0.12, 1
Lady Brickhouse, 0.06, 5
Tawaabb, 0.06, 8
Duplicity, 0.00, 7
Diamond Johnny G, 0.00, 4

The usual caveats apply to the raw numbers – there is no measure of ability, suitability to conditions, or any individual measure of form (other than analysis of the previous running style of each contender) used in the production of the ratings.

Another caveat is that today’s race includes runners with little historic form, being limited to 3 year old competitors.  This last observation applies especially to our top ranked leading contender  – Burning Thread.  He’s had only 3 runs in total and was slowly away on the first of them, meaning he also scores as a potential lagger.  However, we’re prepared to forgive his debut run last year, since his last 2 outings show him to be a useful, pacey sort.

As we look at the next factor of interest from a pace perspective – the draw – another positive for Burning Thread emerges, in that he is drawn in stall 9 (of 9).  Traditionally the draw at Sandown on the 5 furlong track in the middle of the course favours those drawn against the far running rail.  Relying on a so-called “known” draw bias can be suspect (unless the reason such bias is hard to counter as at our favoured example of the inside rail at Chester) especially as clerks of the course may seek to mitigate such advantage on straight courses through watering policies and the like.  In such cases it pays to look at recent evidence in the draw, something we’ll be focusing on as a topic in its own right over the coming months.  For the case in hand at Sandown today, we will assume that the rail draw is no negative, and may well provide extra assistance, despite the field size being relatively small.

Let’s say Burning Thread takes a prominent racing position from the rail draw – is he good enough to win?  That is more doubtful.  His ability ratings are not the best in the field, and in this class he may face stiff competition in the closing stages.  If the favourite, Duchess Dora, is close up (as befits her running style), he will be in danger.  There may be a back to lay opportunity, as his price currently stands at 5.3 on Betfair (as of the time of writing, at 9 am), which should be shorter if he is a genuine contender within the final furlong.  At a much bigger price, 12.0, Red Avalanche is also interesting in stall 6 – but we have to take on trust his comparative ability as a 3 yr old since he has been off the track for 245 days.  Whilst he also raced keenly as a juvenile, we cannot really predict what his running style may be without more recent evidence.  All in all, this a tricky affair with so many unknowns to factor – but, of course, that’s one of the things that makes racing fun.

Tags: back to lay, Burning Thread, draw advantage, Duchess Dora, front runners, Red Avalanche, Smartform, sprint races

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