Leafy Lingfield Saturday evening
By colin on Saturday, June 25th, 2011A friend is off to the races in deepest Surrey tonight and asked for a few pointers for the meeting, so we’ve dusted off a few tools crafted from Smartform to produce some analysis that may help below:
17:50: Arabian Falcon is worth a small win bet – strong from a race pace angle (important over 5 furlongs); also strong on 2 year old breeding.
18:20: Speightowns Kid – strong on breeding angle, weak on pace. Grandmas Dream – strong on pace, reasonable trainer form in a race with generally weak recent trainer records.
Grandmas Dream would be the pick of the two for a small win bet.
18:50: A tricky race, nothing stands out on breeding, although the two by Ifraaj, that is Idiom and Rafella, should be well suited by conditions, though they are miles out of contention according to the betting. Song of the Siren is strongly expected to make the pace and/ or race prominently, having an outstanding front runner figure. His trainer, Andrew Balding, is also in great form right now, and although the horse has been off for a while, should give a good account.
Song of the Siren is therefore the pick, though a look in the paddock before the race is strongly recommended and should reveal how well the horse looks for his return to action in comparison with the rest of the field.
19:25: Another tricky little race which should be won by Timocracy, but is too short in the betting to be of interest. Dansilver is rated a live threat but has been off for 80 days. How fit will he be on his return to action?
The suggestion is to give this race a swerve; if you want to bet for a small interest in the race, combining the two above in a forecast bet would be the play.
19:55: Another nasty race to predict which should be won by the hot favourite Deck Walk, but is too short for comfort amongst a bunch of unexposed horses in a poor maiden. At a longer price, Ibiza Sunset‘s trainer is in great form so a small each way bet (if the race remains at 8 runners, thus paying a place on the first 3) would be interesting.
20:25: An interesting betting race in which a few outsiders look to have chances better than their price indicates. For a bunch of lightly raced 3 year olds racing over 12 furlongs, breeding may prove a good indicator of their potential to win this race. As such, Hurricane Spear, Final Liberation and Dark and Dangerous look most interesting to focus on. Revolutionary should lead early, and Dark and Dangerous will be held up, hopefully off a strong pace. At a price of 10/1 plus, Dark and Dangerous may spring a surprise, and it may be worth playing up any winnings from previous races for a good each way bet.
Post mortem:
No winners! The right principle in a number of races. We got the second horse in the 18:20 and the 18:50. It was right to take on the heavy odds on favourite in the 19:55. A lay bet would have won, but we picked the wrong each way contender to take it on with. Likewise in the 20:25, we were right to look at the pedigree angle, and found the 8/1 winner in our shortlist of 3. However, the recommendation, Dark and Dangerous, proved to be neither of those things!