Ok, this doesn’t happen every day, but when it does…
By colin on Thursday, October 3rd, 2024
In the screenshot bove, we see key metrics from the Betwise Daily Oddsline service. Here’s a quick breakdown of what each represents:
- Name: The horse’s name.
- Betwise rank: A ranking assigned by the Betwise algorithm based on the horse’s predicted chances of winning.
- Market rank: The ranking according to the betting market’s early prices.
- Rank difference: The difference between Betwise rank and market rank, highlighting where Betwise disagrees with the market.
- Betwise odds: The odds predicted by the Betwise model, reflecting its calculation of each horse’s winning probability.
- Early price: The early market odds available on Betfair.
- Value: The ratio of early price to Betwise odds, showing potential value for bettors.
- Result: The horse’s actual finishing position. (Of course, when odds are posted before the race, this column is empty! But after the result is updated, nothing changes.)
This race was run just a few hours ago, and while we don’t see outcomes this perfect every time, the Betwise rankings aligned almost perfectly with the race result, right to the smallest places. You’d not have made much money with this prediction, but it’s notable that Saved Lizzie, ranked 5th by the oddsline, was only ranked 10th by the market, hence a big price discrepancy, almost 6 times the Betwise price, despite finishing exactly where predicted, in 5th place.
The strong correlation between the Betwise rank and actual race outcomes highlights the power of the Oddsline’s approach. By leveraging statistical models and machine learning, it captures the critical factors needed to provide value without relying on the market. As we discussed in this week’s earlier blog post, this data-driven method offers insights you won’t find elsewhere.
If you’re looking to sharpen your betting strategy with a data-driven perspective, you can sign up for the Betwise Oddsline here.