Last year I wrote about Mark Johnston partnering with then handing over his trainers license to his son Charlie and the impact this had on Smartform’s trainer_id. Those of us who like to aggregate data by trainer_id, for example to generate trainer strike rates, might wish to acknowledge that the Johnstons’ yard and training methods remained substantially the same through this handover of the reins (pun intended) by merging all the various trainer_id values together into one. Well, it’s happened again …

Roger Fell’s yard has been going through some drama with the addition of Sean Murray as a partner on the trainer’s license. However Sean’s name has more recently disappeared from the license. Roger Fell continues in his own right, an example to all of us, still working at age 70. One consequence is that Smartform’s data provider has changed trainer_id, but only when Sean Murray was dropped, not when he was added. We can observe this with the following query:

select distinct trainer_id, trainer_name from historic_runners_beta where trainer_name like "%Fell%";
+------------+--------------------------+
| trainer_id | trainer_name             |
+------------+--------------------------+
|       1220 | R Fell                   |
...
|     128659 | Roger Fell               |
|     128659 | Roger Fell & Sean Murray |
|     161959 | Roger Fell               |
+------------+--------------------------+
5 rows in set (6.30 sec)

Note there is an unrelated trainer whose name contains “Fell” whom I have removed from the results table for clarity.

The first thing we see is that when Sean joined the trainer license, the trainer_id remained the same. But when Sean left the license, a new trainer_id was created for Roger on his own. If you take the view that nothing significant has changed about how the yard is run, the staff, the training methods, etc, you may prefer to see results from all four Fell licenses under a single trainer_id. This can be done with the following SQL script:

SET SQL_SAFE_UPDATES = 0;
UPDATE historic_runners_beta SET trainer_id = 161959 WHERE trainer_name = "R Fell";
UPDATE historic_runners_beta SET trainer_id = 161959 WHERE trainer_name = "Roger Fell";
UPDATE historic_runners_beta SET trainer_id = 161959 WHERE trainer_name = "M Johnston";
SET SQL_SAFE_UPDATES = 1;

Note that here we are using the newest trainer_id to tag all past results. This means the modification is a one-time deal and all future runners/races will continue to use the same trainer_id. If we had used any of the older trainer_id values, we would have to apply the fix script every day, which would be far less convenient.

This concept is easily extended to other trainer changes. For example, if your would like aggregated stats for the partnership between Rachel Cook and John Bridger to be merged with John’s longer standing stats, you can add the following to your script:

UPDATE historic_runners_beta SET trainer_id = 157470 WHERE trainer_name = "J J Bridger";

If you find there are other trainer name changes that have resulted in a new trainer_id which you would prefer to see merged, you can apply similar techniques.

If you know of other cases of trainer name changes which represent a continuation of substantially the same yard, please feel free to comment …

In the screenshot bove, we see key metrics from the Betwise Daily Oddsline service. Here’s a quick breakdown of what each represents:

• Name: The horse’s name.
• Betwise rank: A ranking assigned by the Betwise algorithm based on the horse’s predicted chances of winning.
• Market rank: The ranking according to the betting market’s early prices.
• Rank difference: The difference between Betwise rank and market rank, highlighting where Betwise disagrees with the market.
• Betwise odds: The odds predicted by the Betwise model, reflecting its calculation of each horse’s winning probability.
• Early price: The early market odds available on Betfair.
• Value: The ratio of early price to Betwise odds, showing potential value for bettors.
• Result: The horse’s actual finishing position. (Of course, when odds are posted before the race, this column is empty! But after the result is updated, nothing changes.)

This race was run just a few hours ago, and while we don’t see outcomes this perfect every time, the Betwise rankings aligned almost perfectly with the race result, right to the smallest places. You’d not have made much money with this prediction, but it’s notable that Saved Lizzie, ranked 5th by the oddsline, was only ranked 10th by the market, hence a big price discrepancy, almost 6 times the Betwise price, despite finishing exactly where predicted, in 5th place.

The strong correlation between the Betwise rank and actual race outcomes highlights the power of the Oddsline’s approach. By leveraging statistical models and machine learning, it captures the critical factors needed to provide value without relying on the market. As we discussed in this week’s earlier blog post, this data-driven method offers insights you won’t find elsewhere.

If you’re looking to sharpen your betting strategy with a data-driven perspective, you can sign up for the Betwise Oddsline here.

The modern horse racing landscape has evolved significantly with the introduction of technology-driven tools that enable bettors and analysts to make more informed decisions. 15 years ago we wrote about how to harness the value of a machine learning driven oddsline in the book Automatic Exchange Betting. For over four years, we offered a free daily oddsline for all types of thoroughbred horse racing in the UK and Ireland. We’ve been continually improving the Betwise Odds Line, and with the latest version—now available as a low-cost subscription service—we have developed an advanced, machine learning-driven tool that not only offers a solid foundation for race analysis but also offers a form driven perspective on the marke. As we continue to refine and enhance this tool, our mission with the oddsline is to help subscribers identify opportunities and navigate the more uncertain areas of the betting landscape.

The Betwise Odds Line is powered by the SmartForm database. The database itself provides all the raw data needed to build your own models, and we use it ourselves for the oddsline process. That process begins with feature engineering, and we have now created and tested a feature universe of over 700 derived variables for this purpose. These variables cover every conceivable angle, from a horse’s past performance to trainer, jockey and sire statistics as well as our own proprietary speed ratings, creating a rich dataset that drives our machine learning algorithms. Users of the Smartform database are able to do this for themseleves and in many cases build their own models. In our case, this comprehensive data set goes into models aimed at predicting the probability of a horse winning a race. The objective is to enable the Betwise Odds Line to offer a consistent, objective, and powerful approach to understanding race probabilities. By training on this vast amount of information, our model can rank horses in terms of probability of winning, with forecast probabilities or odds for each contender. This data – the oddsline – can then be used to identify where the market might be overestimating or underestimating a contender’s chances, or indeed where the market clearly diverges with the oddsline, and may “know” something pure form cannot reveal. This makes the odds line not just a foundation, but a strategic tool that can reveal genuine opportunities and those horses with the strongest probabilities of winning any given race. Beyond that, since this is not a “tipster” service, we can look at the structure of any given market versus the oddsline, and consider how the ranking order produced by the oddsline can be used to identify value in place bets, forecasts, tricasts and multiples – or pool bets, such as the placepot.

While the Betwise Odds Line excels in providing a robust data-driven foundation, we are completely aware of the inherent uncertainties in predicting outcomes. There are always factors that form data cannot fully capture — the form database has no knowledge of home gallops, horse improvement or deterioration off the track, trainers and owners “plots”, horses acting up on the way to the post, the unpredictable nature of the race itself and so on – all of which will alter the dynamics of the race and the probability that any horse has of winning. These are the nuances that make betting both challenging and intriguing, and this uncertainty will often be mirrored in fluctuating market odds and rankings. Our ongoing development efforts focus on highlighting where the odds line’s predictions might be more or less confident, and it’s important to note that the oddsline does not use any market information. This opens up new avenues for understanding how market pricing compares to raw race probabilities. In fact, both the more confident predictions and the fuzzier areas can present opportunities. By understanding where the odds line is most accurate and where it’s more uncertain, as well as where the market may be more influential, bettors can tailor their strategies accordingly, exploring these subtleties to find value that others might miss.

Since launching the Betwise Odds Line, we’ve now added live results, allowing you to track performance in real time. We will soon be adding tote returns and live pools, enhancing the ability to use the oddsline for deeper race analysis, particularly where ranking order within the race is paramount for exotic bet strategies. Not to mention providing rankings to help navigate a whole meeting.

As we continue to refine the service, our goal is to make it an indispensable tool for bettors. By subscribing, you’re not just gaining access to a an oddsline—you’re joining a service dedicated to exploring the complexities of horse racing and probability. Our journey is about more than just offering probabilities; it’s about understanding the dynamics of horse racing markets and providing you with the insights to make smarter, more informed decisions. Whether you’re seeking clear-cut value or eager to explore the sport’s fascinating uncertainties, join us as we push the boundaries of data-driven insights for smarter market strategies.

You can find out more here and sign up at: Betwise Odds Line.