Derby Day Front Runners

With the most interesting race of the day, the Epsom Derby, set to go off at 4 pm, we turn out attention to front runner analysis in a couple of the earlier sprints being run before the big race.  This continues June’s Saturday analysis theme using our Smartform model as outlined in this month’s Racing Ahead article and previous posts.

First up, the Epsom 2.10.  Not much evidence to go on, since this is listed race for 2 year olds, most of whom have raced only once or twice.  As a race type it ranks amongst the most unreliable for the ratings.  Two reasons for this – firstly, a higher class, non-handicap race means a potentially wide ability gulf between the runners rendering our predictions based on previous races redundant.  Second, each runner has had little chance to establish a real profile.   However, from the evidence we have seen, there may be an angle in the ratings.  Here are the top two (percentage leader prediction, followed by draw):

Dubawi Gold, 0.24, 8
Where’s Romeo, 0.24, 2

A tie for top ranked front runner does not look too promising, but the third rated, Singapore Lilly, rates only 12% likely to lead and likelier to start slowly, leaving Premier Clarets rated fourth, also at 12%.   So as a starting point, we can say there is stronger than 50% chance that Dubawi Gold and Where’s Romeo will break and try to lead early.  Of the two, Where’s Romeo has raced twice over the minimum trip and led, whereas Dubawi Gold has raced once over 6 furlongs and led – so, Where’s Romeo’s early speed may be stronger.  Also, Where’s Romeo is drawn towards the inside rail, which is generally an advantage over 6 furlongs at Epsom.  Last but not least, there is better price margin in Where’s Romeo’s price for an in-running play.  Currently available at 8.2 on Betfair, we’d expect it to trade much lower if has been leading after the first few furlongs.   Too many form and ability unknowns to try and call the winner, however.

Next up, the top two from the Musselburgh 2.35.  All the caveats on race type mentioned above apply, since it is also a 2 year old race with little previous form to go on.

Excel Bolt, 0.43, 4
Misty Morn, 0.22, 7

The ratings speak for themselves on this one, we should not look outside these two in order to try and predict the front runner.  However, Misty Morn has a rag’s chance and is rated just as likely to start slowly.  Excel Bolt has one run to his name and is also the favourite for the race.  Not much margin for an in-running play, with the price already at 2.12 on Betfair.  However, if Excel Bolt breaks from the front over 5 furlongs at Musselburgh, he will take all the beating.

Last but not least, we should say a word about the most valuable sprint of the day, the so-called  Dash or Epsom 3.15.  Here are the top two:

Le Toreador, 0.11, 3
Glamorous Spirit, 0.11, 1

We’ve left this to last, because these ratings are not the strongest. Basically the field is full of high class sprinters, most of whom are capable of breaking well. However, there are some nice prices on our top two, so whilst it could not be a strong fancy, Glamorous Spirit also has a hitherto spotless lagger record, and is therefore worthy of further consideration at 38.0 at the time of writing.

Tags: back to lay, Epsom, Excel Bolt, front runners, Glamorous Spirit, Smartform, sprint races, Where's Romeo

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