Posts Tagged ‘in race comments’

Front Runner analysis: 4.15 Beverley today

Saturday, May 29th, 2010

As promised in this month’s Racing Ahead article, Betwise are previewing different races here every week to shortlist each contender’s probability of being the front runner in the race.

The first question a good cynic should ask is: What’s the point of trying to predict front runners?  Here are a few reasons:

  1. In races under a mile, any runner that is prominent early has a c. 30% chance of winning the race.
  2. It is often possible to back probable front runners before the race and lay them off in running at a profit.
  3. Predicting the likeliest front runners is key to pace handicapping, and working out draw advantage.

All our front runner rankings are produced automatically, using the Smartform Database, looking into every runners’ previous history and assessing their running styles against each other for the race in question.  We’ve found that the method has the best record of success in smaller fields over sprint distances – so we’re picking out the 4.15 at Beverley as today’s race.

Below are the list of likely slowly starters (LAGGERS), followed by the list of faster starters (LEADERS) that we would expect to front run today.  The first figure after the horse’s name shows the chance that we think that runner has of leading (or being a lagger) today; the figure after the horse’s name indicates its stall position today.  So, for the list below, we think that Fullanby and Fitz Flyer each have an approx. 30% chance of starting slowest today, and we think it is 46% likely that Masta Plasta will be prominent and/or lead from the start.


LAGGERS:
Fullandby, 0.31, 4
Fitz Flyer, 0.27, 3
Look Busy, 0.20, 1
Kaldoun Kingdom, 0.17, 6
Tombi, 0.06, 2
Masta Plasta, 0.00, 5
LEADERS:
Masta Plasta, 0.46, 5
Tombi, 0.28, 2
Look Busy, 0.21, 1
Fullandby, 0.05, 4
Kaldoun Kingdom, 0.00, 6
Fitz Flyer, 0.00, 3

As with using any tool for race analysis, the analysis does not stop on one rating, and it’s important to interpret these figures in the context of today’s race.  Concentrating purely on who will front run for a second, we also note that our second ranked front runner, Tombi, is wearing first time cheekpieces, which it’s possible may bring about earlier speed.

On the race itself, it’s a decent quality race, as we can tell from the Class (2) and prize money on offer, so running styles alone are unlikely to tell us which horse will win (in a lower class race where all horses are exposed, stealing a lead on an average field can be a bigger advantage).  On this score, Masta Plasta is well rated, but has less potential for improvement than the rest of these, at age 7.  Plus, he has not won since 2008.  Furthermore, a 46% chance of being the front runner, still means a 54% chance against.  Even so, he’s our likeliest contender, some way ahead of the rest, and very unlikely to start slowly.  Tehrefore, at 6.0 + he is worth considering as a back to lay bet (but not on this evidence alone to win) since he should be well in contention until the closing stages of the race.

Lots more work can be done on the analysis of this or any other race using these ratings – bringing into play speed figures and relative ability for example.  One of the nice features of Betwise’s leader/lagger ratings is that you can use and interpret them as you wish as an input for your own analysis, whatever betting angle you are looking at – from laying slow starters, backing to lay front runners, to predicting pace and win strategies.

Draw and Pace: Chester 2.55, Saturday

Saturday, May 22nd, 2010

Today’s Lambs Navy Rum Handicap at Chester is an inauspicious affair – a class 5 handicap worth £4047 to the winner.

However, it’s of particular interest to us because the race throws up a chance to apply the analysis we’ve been looking at recently with regard to draw and pace in sprint races.

Chester is our favourite example for draw bias, and we’ve done lots of research which shows the continued profitability of backing stalls 1 and 2 blind in larger fields over 5 furlongs.   In fact, it’s a trend you can make an automatic profit with over the long run, since it is usually underbet – though of course the prices that make this true can change in future.

What will not change is the natural advantage handed to horses drawn low.   As we saw earlier in the month at the May festival, an analysis of front runners can also help determine who will get to the rail early and stay there.   Speedy sorts can overcome the natural advantage of stalls 1 and 2 by beating those runners to the rail – as in the case of Masamah who made all to win from stall 3 in a 5 furlong sprint at the May festival – though we won’t bother to look at anything drawn higher than halfway in this 12-runner field, so we discount anything higher than 6.

Betwise use a front runner prediction method derived from in-running comments in the Smartform database, that we will be describing in detail in the June edition of Racing Ahead.   Applying this method to the 2.55 today, our top 6 (in order) for those most likely to break early and lead from the front are:

Front Runner Ranking Draw Today Betfair Price*
Harry Up 5 8.80
Legal Eagle 3 5.70
Sir Geoffrey 4 3.25
Red Rosanna 11 50.00
Not My Choice 1 7.60
Baby Queen 8 40.00
*Price at time of blog post

Of those drawn in the top 6, only Memphis Man (drawn 2) and Radiator Rooney (drawn 6) do not make the cut as previous front runners that rank as likely to lead, though no doubt their jockeys will/ should do everything to encourage them. Red Rosanna and Baby Queen, despite being in our top 6 ranked front runners, will be discounted since they are both drawn higher than 6.  Which leaves us with a shortlist of 4 – Not My Choice, Harry Up, Legal Eagle and Sir Geoffrey in the 12 runner field, before looking at any individual horse’s recent form or ability.

We still think that draw is the most important factor at Chester (meaning we’d be reluctant to go against Not My Choice in stall 1), though the top ranked front running ability of Harry Up may be enough to overcome his poorer draw in stall 5.   At this point in the game it’s time for individual choice and weighing up each horse’s potential to win against its price (at prices of 7.6 and 8.8 for the two horses mentioned, you can make a reasonable argument for value already).   Whatever the individual bettor’s view, discounting over 60% of the field makes that task much easier.

Analysing in-running comments

Saturday, May 1st, 2010

In the May edition of  Racing Ahead, Betwise take an in-depth look at analysing in- race comments in order to spot profitable betting angles – using the Smartform Racing Database.

Lots of handicappers will look up previous in-race comments for horses that they are interested in betting on.  However, using these comments is not a recognized starting point in form analysis or standardized as a way of comparing form between one horse and another.

Each race is a unique event, after all, so the story of one race is different from the story of another, and the abilities of the horses will vary.  Any number of race by race factors will also affect the way a race may be run – such as the race conditions, the going, the draw, pace in the race, how the jockeys decided to ride their mounts, how the trainers and owners instructed each jockey, to name a few.  Therefore an argument could be made that comments can’t be compared meaningfully across different events, still less as a means of measuring horses of different abilities.

Leaving aside these concerns, the sheer magnitude of the task should be enough to deter any further manual investigation.  A modest sprint handicap of 12 runners where each runner has had an average of 20 previous runs would be 240 comments to examine for one race alone, with no standard model to work towards.

So, in the Racing Ahead article we  discuss the results of analysis achieved using the flexibility and power of a programmable computer database which includes full in-race comments for each runner.  In total, we examined over 7 years’ of  in-running comments from Smartform for different race types in UK and Irish Flat racing – over 492,000 comments in total, representing over 45,000 individual races, for over 48,000 different runners.

(more…)