2.05 Epsom
Ashbina
Blank Czech
Regal Gold (should be in contention at half way, back to lay at a big price)
Gunner Will

2.30 Epsom
Sugar Beet (NB)
Mon Visage
Welsh Inlet (front runner, reasonable draw – back to lay)

3.05 Epsom (not clear where the draw advantage will be)
Stone of Folca (interesting long shot dropped in class)
Judge and Jury (solid recent form, likely to run a good race)

3.40 Epsom
Spanish Duke (NAP)
Measuring Time

4.15 Epsom (not a strong pick, Amateur jockeys’ race)
If I were a Boy

4.50 Epsom
Tenby Lady (good looking chance, but short in betting for such a competitive race)
Tiger Webb
Celestial Girl

5.25 Epsom
Danehill Dante

Orientalist

Of course they should also go a decent pace in the Ebor, which, with a big field, makes it a true test over the distance.

Using Smartform we’ve rated all the contenders according the winning distance strike rate of their sires, and have the following shortlist of 4 for the race (in order of sire strike):

1. Harlestone Times

2. Tactician

3. Vulcanite

3. Fox Hunt

Food for thought, since all are priced at 12/1 +…

The following query gives us all declared rides ordered by jockey with the number of mounts from highest to lowest:

>select distinct jockey_name, count(jockey_name) AS ‘rides’ from daily_runners join daily_races using (race_id) where meeting_date=CURDATE() group by jockey_name order by count(jockey_name) DESC;

For today’s racing that gives us:

+——————–+————-+
| jockey_name       | rides           |
+——————–+————-+
| T P Queally           |                 10 |
| Jim Crowley         |                 10 |
| S Sanders              |                  8 |
| K Fallon                 |                  7 |
| J P Spencer           |                  7 |
| B McHugh             |                  7 |
| D Nolan                  |                  7 |
| G Baker                  |                  7 |

Now we can drill on in on the mounts of any jockey we are interested in with an individual, one-line jockey query, using any combination of over 100 variables to analyse.

High Standing is the standout pick on sire statistics, drawn 28, so with the stands rail draw, the champion jockey to assist, and a nice win last time out.

Ancient Cross’ last time out win came out well in terms of speed figures, but was with cut in the ground over 5 furlongs.  Of those that have performed well on the clock at Goodwood over 6 furlongs, Crown Choice is the clear pick with a nice win in May over course and distance.

So, 3 at huge prices to take against the field:

Happily Crown Choice is drawn on the other side of the track in 6, so provides some hedge against High Standing, with Tajneed taken to do better than should be expected in the middle of the course.

Let’s see if the overall impressive strike rate of this sire shows through today, running the same query as previously in Smartform in order to find any qualifying runners.  This time we’ll add in Smartform’s forecast price field.

mysql> select forecast_price, name, course, scheduled_time from daily_races join daily_runners using (race_id) where meeting_date=CURDATE() and sire_name = “Shamardal”;
+—————–+————–+——–+————————–+
| forecast_price | name           | course | scheduled_time           |
+—————–+————–+——–+————————–+
| 5/2                    | Burj Nahar  | Ascot  | 2011-07-24 15:25:00   |
+—————–+————–+——–+————————–+
1 row in set (0.88 sec)

So it’s just Burj Nahar in the 3.25 – apparently fancied a bit more by the market than yesterday’s contenders.

How to find progeny of Shamardal racing at Ascot today, where their sire won the St James Palace stakes (well, it was run at York that year, to be exact)…?

It’s a simple query in Smartform, as follows:

>select name, course, scheduled_time from daily_races join daily_runners using (race_id) where meeting_date=CURDATE() and sire_name = “Shamardal”;

The results, returned in less than a second, are:

Alnashmy | Ascot     | 2011-07-23 15:15:00
Below Zero | Ascot     | 2011-07-23 15:50:00

Both are decent prices, both racing over 1 mile and 7 furlongs respectively (good trips for their sire), so good luck to them.

The angle we’re going to use is therefore the distance strike rate of each of the sires for all races over a mile at Newbury today, combined with the age and going strike rates for those sires, to see if we can spot any interesting contenders. Below are the top 2 for each of the qualifying races:

2.55 (1 mile) Watneya, Al Mayasah

16.05 (1 m 2f) Anmar, Distant Memories

17.10 (2 miles)  Morar, Dynamic Drive

14:00: Whinging Willie, Graphic

14:35:  Maccabees, Itsonlymakebelieve, Cavaleiro

15:05:  Sasheen

15:35:  Alfresco

16:10:  Sense Of Pride, Souter Point

16:45: Grand Gold, Sir Glanton

17:15:  Gatewood, Proof, Anatolian

17:45:  Little Book, Oliver’s Gold, Invent

17:50:   Arabian Falcon is worth a small win bet -  strong from a race pace angle (important over 5 furlongs);  also strong on 2 year old breeding.

18:20:  Speightowns Kid – strong on breeding angle, weak on pace.  Grandmas Dream – strong on pace, reasonable trainer form in a race with generally weak recent trainer records.

Grandmas Dream would be the pick of the two for a small win bet.

18:50: A tricky race, nothing stands out on breeding, although the two by Ifraaj, that is Idiom and Rafella, should be well suited by conditions, though they are miles out of contention according to the betting.  Song of the Siren is strongly expected to make the pace and/ or race prominently, having an outstanding front runner figure.  His trainer, Andrew Balding, is also in great form right now, and although the horse has been off for a while, should give a good account.

Song of the Siren is therefore the pick, though a look in the paddock before the race is strongly recommended and should reveal how well the horse looks for his return to action in comparison with the rest of the field.

19:25: Another tricky little race which should be won by Timocracy, but is too short in the betting to be of interest.  Dansilver is rated a live threat but has been off for 80 days.  How fit will he be on his return to action?

The suggestion is to give this race a swerve; if you want to bet for a small interest in the race, combining the two above in a forecast bet would be the play.

19:55: Another nasty race to predict which should be won by the hot favourite Deck Walk, but is too short for comfort amongst a bunch of unexposed horses in a poor maiden.  At a longer price, Ibiza Sunset‘s trainer is in great form so a small each way bet (if the race remains at 8 runners, thus paying a place on the first 3) would be interesting.

20:25: An interesting betting race in which a few outsiders look to have chances better than their price indicates.  For a bunch of lightly raced 3 year olds racing over 12 furlongs, breeding may prove a good indicator of their potential to win this race.  As such, Hurricane Spear, Final Liberation and Dark and Dangerous look most interesting to focus on.  Revolutionary should lead early, and Dark and Dangerous will be held up, hopefully off a strong pace.  At a price of 10/1 plus, Dark and Dangerous may spring a surprise, and it may be worth playing up any winnings from previous races for a good each way bet.

The races are not getting any easier, though we are still (just) ahead on all 2 year old races due to the success of Power on the first day at 9/2.  The longer priced selections for the other races offer no prospect of a quick return, with a number of attempts being expected (certainly more than a few races over a few days) before landing 16/1 shots, for example.

Falls of Lora is today’s selection at around 5/1, though it’s possible the soft ground could throw a spanner in the works.  Horses towards the head of the market are again those to keep an eye on, though the odd shock is possible as with Big Audio in 2009 (returned at 22/1).   Sir Percy’s record with his first crop of juveniles is interesting, and at a massive price, despite a few defeats, it’s possible Yammos may go better than expected (according to his price, he’s expected to finish a distant 14th out of 16) though it is pushing the boundaries of reason to suggest he could win or be placed.  So, with an excellent win last time (generally a prerequisite in the trends), not far off this extended distance, Falls of Lora it is.   Her ability to cope with the ground is the only big unknown.